SINGAPORE – The odds are growing for the Singapore dollar (SGD) to be Asia’s best-performing currency for a third straight year as the central bank looks set to keep using a firm exchange rate to combat inflation.
The nation’s currency presently ranks in third place in the region for 2024, behind the Hong Kong dollar, which is pegged to the greenback, and the Indian rupee. However, it is catching up with those peers due to speculation sticky price pressures will prompt the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to maintain its appreciating exchange rate settings in its policy review due on July 26.
“We expect SGD to continue its outperformance in the second half as we don’t expect MAS to aggressively reduce the slope of the S$Neer policy band this year,” said Mr Alex Loo, macro strategist at TD Securities.
“SGD should continue to benefit from the appreciation path of the policy band, while the pickup in growth momentum and upswing in global trade should bolster SGD’s appeal to investors.”
The MAS, which uses the exchange rate as its main monetary policy tool, has let the Singapore dollar appreciate against the currencies of the island’s major trading partners in 2024 to tackle inflation.
The central bank focuses on the currency’s nominal effective exchange rate, referred to as S$Neer, which it allows to move within a policy band.
Singapore’s core inflation probably slowed to 3 per cent in June, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists before the data is published on July 23.
The gauge is forecast to ease to around 2 per cent in 2025 in the absence of further shocks, MAS managing director Chia Der Jiun said last week.
Singapore’s strong growth prospects also bolster the case for the central bank to leave the currency on its appreciation path.
Gross domestic product accelerated in the second quarter, expanding a faster than expected 2.9 per cent. MAS expects the economy to grow near the upper end of a 1 per cent to 3 per cent range forecast for 2024, even as geopolitical tensions and higher global interest rates continue to pose challenges.
While the Hong Kong dollar has been Asia’s top performer in 2024, the increased likelihood of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in coming months makes the currency vulnerable to a sharp reversal. The second-placed Indian rupee is also showing fresh signs of weakness as it hovers near a record low against the greenback.
With Singapore’s “GDP growth still not performing too badly in the second quarter of 2024, we suspect there is no urgency for MAS to ease monetary policy given the stickiness in inflation”, said Mr Moh Siong Sim, a foreign exchange strategist at Bank of Singapore. “We expect SGD to remain resilient relative to most of its Asian peers against the risk of renewed USD strength going into the US election.” BLOOMBERG
