What’s going on here?
The Indian rupee saw a slight rise on Thursday, trading at 83.93 against the US dollar as of 09:30 a.m. IST, bouncing back from its historic low of 83.97 hit just a day earlier.
What does this mean?
The rupee’s rebound comes after it plummeted to its lowest level ever on Wednesday, primarily due to the unwinding of carry trades financed by the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen. Traders are cautious, expecting the rupee to potentially drop below 84, though RBI interventions have been key in maintaining its level above this threshold. CR Forex’s Managing Director forecasts the rupee to fluctuate between 83.80 to 84.05 in the short term, with a broader range of 83.90 to 84.20 in the medium term. The dollar index was slightly lower at 103 after a 0.2% rise on Wednesday, while most Asian currencies posted gains between 0.1% to 0.7%.
Why should I care?
For markets: Balancing on a tightrope.
Dollar-rupee forward premiums have risen, with the 1-year implied yield up by 3 basis points to 2.04%, signaling market anticipation. All eyes are on the RBI, expected to maintain current interest rates in its policy decision at 10:00 a.m. IST. Commentary from policymakers will be crucial, as traders seek clues on the future direction of rates. Potential dovish remarks could reduce forward premiums, yet expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts in September may provide support at around 1.95%.
The bigger picture: Global currencies on edge.
The rupee’s recent volatility underscores broader instability in global currencies. The slight rise in Asian currencies (0.1% to 0.7%) and the marginally lower dollar index highlight ongoing market adjustments. With the world watching for policy shifts from central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, the rupee’s near-term fate will likely set the tone for other emerging market currencies as well.
