Over the past week, the dollar has weakened significantly, benefiting not only commodity currencies but also the main European currencies, led by the euro and sterling.
Between rate cuts to combat a possible economic slowdown and rate cuts due to falling inflation, the scenario for US interest rates remains centered around rate cuts. The only question is how many and to what extent, since as far as timing is concerned, a first move in September already seems to have been decided. All this speculation has logically weakened the dollar. As a result, the EURUSD has broken out of its year-long consolidation triangle at the top. A breakout above 1.0980/1.1030 paves the way for the 2021 highs around 1.23. As for the British pound, after a (major) slump in July, it is regaining lost ground and is now just a stone’s throw away from 1.30, which, given the current momentum, is unlikely to hold out for much longer. Nordic currencies are also resurfacing, with the USDNOK bumping up against its 2023 highs around 11.11/30. The first serious support is at 10.44.
In the commodity currencies, it’s also time for revenge. The kiwi has rebounded from its April lows of 0.6360 on the back of a hammer-shaped reversal pattern, and is set to attack 0.6780 shortly. The kiwi’s chart structure more or less resembles that of its Australian counterpart: the currency has also successfully retested its April support at 0.5850 and is heading for the top of its range at 0.6200. Even the ZAR looks set to recover. The structure of the USDZAR since 2023 resembles a rounding top. The break of the recent June lows at 17.86 paves the way for a continuation of the slide towards 17.45 and even 16.67 in extension.
