Analysis published this week by estate agent DJ Alexander showed average house prices in Scotland rose by £13,001 or nearly 7% between September 2023 and August 2024, from £186,970 to £199,971. In England and Wales, the estate agent noted, average house prices rose by £8,508 over the same period.
Across Scotland, there were substantial variations in price rises, with East Renfrewshire recording the greatest increase of £27,270, West Lothian showing a gain of £18,919, Edinburgh higher by £17,661, Midlothian up £15,410, and the Borders advancing by £15,324.
The only area which experienced a fall in average house prices over the year to August was Argyll and Bute, which saw a drop of £1,747.
David Alexander, chief executive officer of DJ Alexander Scotland, was in upbeat form as he offered his views on the figures.
He said: “The Scottish housing market continues to be remarkably resilient. An increase of £13,001 equates to a 6.9% rise over the year at a time when interest rates were high and there were concerns over the performance of the economy. The average price of a Scottish home will soon be above £200,000 for the first time ever and shows a market which remains resilient and growing.”
Mr Alexander added: “Even more astonishing is the fact that, while almost every part of Scotland recorded an increase in average prices, eight areas had an average price rise of over £10,000 during the 12-month period. In East Renfrewshire, prices have increased by £524 a week for the entire year.”
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A survey published earlier this month by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors showed expectations for the housing market in Scotland are the strongest since early 2022.
RICS noted that “this optimism for the remainder of the year is despite activity being subdued in September”.
A net balance of 33% of surveyors in Scotland expected house prices to rise over the next three months. This is the highest this balance has been since February 2022, RICS noted, and up from 15% in August. Meanwhile, a net balance of 32% of surveyors projected sales would increase in the same period.
And a net balance of 40% of respondents reported that house prices had risen over the past three months. RICS noted this was above the UK average net balance of 11% reporting an increase in prices over this period.
Housebuilders have meanwhile been striking a more positive tone of late.
Barratt Redrow’s chief executive, David Thomas, said this week: “Whilst customer demand continues to be sensitive to the wider economy, we are beginning to see more stable market conditions with increased mortgage availability and affordability.
“It will take some time for customer confidence to fully recover from the macroeconomic headwinds faced over the past two years, but we are encouraged by the solid trading we have experienced over recent weeks.”
Mr Alexander, for his part, projected further rises in Scottish house prices.
He said: “The Scottish housing market continues to outperform our neighbours south of the Border and produce really quite strong growth. Normally you would expect annual increases of between 2% to 3% but average property prices in Scotland are running at double that rate of growth.
“With interest rates likely to fall in the coming months, employment remaining high, and the anticipation of higher economic growth, I believe these increases in Scottish house prices are likely to continue in the coming year.”
The key thing to remember, before we get carried away on a wave of joy over the strength of the housing market, is that rising prices are not good for all.
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For many people, their house is something to be lived in, with movements in prices not necessarily a priority.
And some might even take the view, for example if they would like to see their children or younger people in general be able to get a foot on the property ladder, that sharp rises in house prices are a negative, even if such increases boost their own personal balance sheet.
There remains much wrong with the UK housing market.
Barratt Redrow noted this week that “long-term housing market fundamentals continue to reflect a significant imbalance between housing supply and demand”. This is a most accurate assessment, but it is a lamentable reality.
The housebuilder said: “The new Government has demonstrated that it is committed to improving the planning system and addressing funding challenges in the affordable housing sector. Whilst these supply-side reforms will also take some time to be fully implemented, we are confident that they will help to unlock permissioned land supply and the delivery of more high-quality, sustainable homes across the country.”
Hopefully, supply-side reforms might eventually alleviate some of the problems in the UK housing market, but this is far from certain. And, as Barratt Redrow points out, implementation of these reforms will in any case take time.
For those trying to get a foot on the property ladder, an improvement in mortgage availability is undoubtedly a good thing.
However, further sharp rises in house prices, on top of the surge seen over many years, is absolutely a negative for those already struggling to afford to buy their own property in terms of monthly repayments and accumulating the necessary deposit.
So we should remember, when we read of strength in the housing market, that this is very much a double-edged sword.
