Some are predicting falling rates and prices. Some don’t want to make predictions at all. What will 2025 look like in real estate?
BOISE, Idaho — If history is any indication, and it is, we have an indication of how the local real estate market is going to look for this coming year. But it’s not a guarantee of how it’s going to look.
At about this time of the year, you’ll find some “experts” predicting plunging mortgage rates and home prices. Then, those same people end up with egg on their faces when that absolutely does not happen. All this while, actual experts, like the President of the Boise Regional REALTORS, refuses to make predictions, because the market is unpredictable.
Almost two years ago, when KTVB asked Elizabeth Hume if the downward market trends, at that time, would continue, she said, “I wish I had that crystal ball that you’re looking for.”
That was smart, because, of course, those downward trends did not continue. And Hume’s face is egg-free. So, we are not going to make predictions and end up with egg on our faces either. But let’s look at the hard data from last year’s market to see how things went and get an indication of where the real estate market is headed.
We start in Ada County. These are 2024 numbers from the Intermountain MLS, compared to 2023. The market heated up in Ada County, with the number of single-family homes sold going up by more than 11%. All that while the median price went up only a little, less than 3%, $540,000. Lots of folks wanted that to plummet. That didn’t happen, but it also didn’t spike. So, if a 3-5% increase in median price is ideal, that’s a relatively slow increase. But it’s important to note that the median price was already pretty high, so things are not affordable. Also, average days on the market dropped by 5 to 42 days. You want that much higher.
It’s a very similar situation in Canyon County, where the number of homes sold went up by almost 9%. The median price also went up, but did not spike. It went up by an almost perfect rate of 4%. But that median price is now $415,000, which is higher than most people would like.
And the days on the market for homes also dropped, by almost a week, with homes in Canyon County selling after 50 days. So again, the market heated up, homes sold faster, and prices went up. But the prices are thankfully not spiking.
How about the Magic Valley in 2024? Here’s Twin Falls County. They also sold a lot more homes. That number went up by more than 10% over 2023. The median price went up almost 4 percent to $365,000. That’s nearly an ideal increase. But again, that’s after prices were already high. And some better news here, where homes lasted more than 2 months on the market, but that is down a day.
So again, we cannot predict the market’s future. But in the past year, we saw prices growing, not spiking, but staying high. That, while demand continued to go up with more homes being sold more quickly. Will all that continue? Probably… but again, none of us have a crystal ball.
