Stock Market Live Updates 27 December 2023: Gift Nifty signals positive open amidst volatility expectations

GIFTNifty: 21,534: +32: +0.15%

Last Heard

Azad Eng: 300…IPO Px: 524… Est Listing: 824 (+57%)..IPO size: 740cr 

Innova Captab:121 …IPO Px: 448… Est Listing: 569 (+27%)..IPO size: 570cr

Mufti Jeans: 80…IPO Px: 280… Est Listing: 360 (+29%)..IPO size: 550cr

RBZ Jewellers: 0…IPO Px: 100… Est Listing:100 (+%)..IPO size: 100cr

HappyForgings: 235…IPO Px: 850… Est Listing:1085 (+282%)..IPO size: 1008cr

ShantiSpintex: 70…IPO Px: 15…Est Listing: 85 (+21%)

(Source Chittorgarh)

Today

Listing of Equity Shares of Shanti Spintex Limited

16888000 Equity Shares @ 70/- (lot size:2000)

Listing of Equity Shares of Happy Forgings Limited

94204882 Equity Shares of Rs.2/- each fully paid up @ 850/-

Listing of Equity Shares of RBZ Jewellers Limited

40000000 Equity Shares Of Rs.10/- each fully paid up @ 100/-

Listing of Equity Shares of Credo Brands Marketing Limited

64301880 Equity Shares of Rs.2/- each fully paid up @ 280/-

Listing of New Securities Shriram Asset Management Co.Ltd.

3218026 equity shares of Rs. 10/- each issued at a premium of Rs.114.30/- to Promoters on a preferential basis pursuant to CCPS.

Listing of new securities of KPI Green Energy Limited

2535925 Equity shares of Rs.10/ each allotted to QIBs pursuant to Qualified Institutional Placement. @ 1183/-

Provisional Cash Rs. In Crs. (26th Dec)

FIIs -95 (6,17,4 – 6,269)

DIIs +167 (8,830 -8,663)

Sensex: 71,337: +230: +0.32%

Nifty: 21,441: +92: +0.43%

BankNifty: 47,725: +233: 0.49%

NiftyIT: 35,493 (-144) (-0.41%)

MIDCAP: 45,388: +293: +0.65%

Dow: 37,545: +159: +0.43%

S&P: 4,775: +20: +0.42%

Nas: 15,075: +82: +0.54%

Brazil: 133,533: +780: +0.59%

Ftse: 7,698: +3: +0.04%: shut

Dax: 16,708: +19: +0.11%: shut

Cac: 7,569 (-2) (-0.03%) : shut

MOEX: 3,095 (-4) (-0.14%) 

WTI Oil: $75.57: +2.73%

Brnt: $80.96: +2.39%

Natural Gas: 2.55 (-2.30%)

Gold: $2070: flat

Gold 22 Carat/g: 5,820: +20: +0.34% 

Silver: $24.4 (-0.69%)

Copper: $390 (-0.1%)

Cotton: $80: +0.36%

Copper (LME): $8,574 (-22) (-0.26%)

Alluminum (LME): $2,326: +86: +3.65%

Zinc (LME): $2,601: +54: +2.12%

Tin (LME): $24,866 (-287) (-1.14%)

Eur-$: 1.1041: +0.3%

GBP-$: 1.2726: +0.3%

Jpy-$: 142.43

Re: 83.1925: +0.05%

USD-RUB: 92.3211: +0.40% : shut

US10yr: 3.9% 

GIND10YR: 7.183 (-0.07%)

$ Index: 101.467 (-0.23%)

US Vix: 12.99 (-0.31%)

India Vix: 14.68: +7.08%

BalticDry: 2,094: +7: +0.34% : shut

ADR/GDR

Cogni: +0.43%

Infy (-1.65%)

Wit: +1.47%

IciciBk: +0.25%

HdfcBk (-0.42%)

DrRdy (-0.07%)

TatSt (-1.88%) : shut

Axis (-0.75%) : shut

SBI (-1.03%) : shut

RIGD: +1.14% : shut

INDA: +0.35% (IShares MSCI INDIA ETF) 

INDY: +0.31% (IShares MSCI INDIA 50 ETF) 

EPI: +0.35% (Wisdom Tree India Earning) 

PIN: +0.00% (Invesco India Etf)

US Futures

S&P 500 futures are near flat Tuesday night as investors eyed the benchmark index’s approach to a record high.

Futures tied to the broad market index and Nasdaq 100 were both up about 0.1%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 4 points points, trading near the flatline.

With just three sessions left in 2023′s trading year, the Dow and S&P 500 are poised to end 2023 higher by 13% and 24%, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite has jumped 44%, outperforming amid mega-cap te

Still, the market may be overly optimistic, especially if the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates later than traders anticipate. The market is pricing in a more than 70% probability of a decrease to interest rates at the central bank’s March meeting, according to CMEGroup’s FedWatch tool.

Investors will watch on Wednesday for economic data on the manufacturing industry.

US Markets

U.S. stocks closed higher Tuesday, building on a streak of eight straight weekly gains as the final, holiday-shortened week of 2023 got under way.

All three major U.S. stock indexes rose in light trading a day after the Christmas holiday, with the S&P 500 touching its highest intraday level since January 2022. All three are on track for monthly, quarterly and annual gains.

Energy stocks were among the best performers in the S&P 500, boosting the sector 1.3% as oil prices gained more than 3% as attacks on ships in the Red Sea fueled shipping disruption fears.

The S&P 500 traded about 0.5% away from its all-time high of 4,796.56. Closing above that level – 4,796.56 – would confirm the benchmark index has been in a bull market since touching the bear market nadir, the closing low reached in October 2022.

The S&P 500 is on track to post its biggest quarterly gain in three years, and is within 0.5% of its all-time closing high reached in January 2022.

Despite warnings about overbought levels and stretched positioning, equities continued to power ahead on bets the Federal Reserve will cut rates as early as March.

We had a good inflation number on Friday. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there’s a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.

Stocks’ eight-week rally shifted into overdrive two weeks ago after the Fed signaled the end of its rate hike cycle and opened the door to potential rate cuts in 2024.

At last glance, markets had baked in a 72.7% likelihood of a 25 basis point reduction in the Fed funds target rate as soon as March, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

The focus will quickly pivot to whether the market will be able to sustain its momentum into the New Year, and that may depend on how long the good vibes surrounding potential Fed rate cuts last.

The so-called Santa Claus rally, which typically encompasses the last five trading sessions of the year and the first two of the new one, has a pretty strong record. Since 1969, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 1.3% over the seven-day period.

The S&P 500 rose to 4,774.75 after completing its longest weekly winning run since 2017. A gauge of chipmakers hit a record, with Intel Corp. up over 5%. The Russell 2000 of small caps added 1.2%.

To Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial, consistent buying pressure on stocks of such magnitude is not only rare, but a bullish sign for improving investor sentiment and market momentum.

“And while all winning streaks eventually end, history suggests the rally may not,” he noted.

Should the S&P 500 complete a ninth straight week of gains, it will be its longest winning run since 2004.

Since 1957, nine of the gauge’s 17 previous eight-week winning streaks pushed to a ninth week, but only three of those made it to 10 weeks

Riding the Rally

Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler says that any pullbacks will be modest and short-lived as investors follow the eight-week uptrend toward new highs.

It still appears likely that we can end the year at the highs. No reason to not ride this market through the end of the year. 

Stock volumes were down across the board, with trading in countries such as Canada, New Zealand and Australia shut. European markets were closed too.

Locking In Higher Yields

Buyers piled into Treasury sales Tuesday, seeking to lock in higher yields as the market prices in an aggressive path of Fed interest-rate cuts in 2024.

Indirect bidders, a group that includes foreign central banks, grabbed a record 77.6% of the 52-week bill auction, and the same category took 71.6% of the department’s six-month offering, the third-largest share ever. Meanwhile, a sale of two-year debt priced below its when-issued yield, a sign of greater-than-expected demand.

Swap contracts tied to Fed meetings imply an over 90% probability the US central bank brings down its current 5.25% to 5.5% target rate range down in March. Across 2024, traders are penciling in nearly 160 basis points of rate reductions — more than twice as much as Fed officials signaled earlier this month in their new round of quarterly forecasts.

The economic calendar is thin this week, with home prices rising for a ninth straight month. Early data from Mastercard SpendingPulse showed US holiday retail sales rose at a much slower pace than in 2022.

On Friday, stocks finished a choppy pre-holiday trading session mostly higher, with the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq each scoring an eighth straight weekly gain. The S&P 500 finished 0.9% away from its record close of 4,796.56, set on Jan. 3, 2022.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.99 billion shares, compared with the 12.56 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

What drove markets

The S&P 500’s streak of eight consecutive weekly gains is its longest since the week ending Nov. 3, 2017. For the Dow, it marked the longest winning run since Feb. 22, 2019.

With three trading days left in the year, “the S&P 500 still has a shot at hitting a record high and extending its streak of up weeks to nine, which would be its longest run since 2004,” said Chris Larkin, managing director for trading and investing at E-Trade from Morgan Stanley.

The focus “will quickly pivot to whether the market will be able to sustain its momentum into the new year, and that may depend on how long the good vibes surrounding potential Fed rate cuts lasts,” Larkin said in emailed comments.

Many investors may now be looking for a so-called Santa Claus rally to further fuel stock-market gains, which have been driven as of late by optimism that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates as early as the first half of 2024. 

That rally period often sees stocks rise during the last five trading days of the calendar year and the first two trading sessions of the new year. However, some analysts have cautioned that investors should dial back their expectations for this seasonal year-end gift, believing that rate-cut hopes may be overly optimistic.

Still, “with the market up so much this year, punctuated with an eight-week winning streak, there are not many sellers willing to book taxable gains to avoid a weak possibility of a correction,” said Louis Navellier, chair and founder of Navellier & Associates.

Data released Friday showed that the rate of U.S. inflation based on the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures index, fell in November for the first time since 2020, indicating that price pressures continue to subside.

In data released on Tuesday, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home-price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in October compared to the previous month. Home prices in the 20 major U.S. metropolitan markets were up 4.9% in the 12 months ending in October. A broader measure of home prices, the national index, rose 0.6% in October and was up 4.8% from the previous year. 

The 20-city and national indexes are each at record highs.

The rest of this week will bring only a smattering of economic updates. Data on weekly jobless-benefit claims and pending home sales will be released on Thursday.

And next week will mark another shortened week for traders, with markets closed on Monday in observance of the New Year’s Day holiday.

Elsewhere, oil rose as shipping disruptions in the Red Sea continued to a spate of Houthi attacks against vessels in the vital waterway. Bitcoin fell and the recent rally in memecoins started to show signs of stalling.

Oil has had a tough year, and John Kilduff doesn’t see things getting any easier for the commodity.

He noted the global economic outlook is softening, “and that’s going to speak right to crude oil demand [and] energy demand for the next year.” He also said that, “with the United States doing what it’s doing in terms of record production, sky high exports … OPEC+ just can’t cut enough to sustain a price much above where we are right now.”

BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky says health-care stocks are a “solid contrarian idea” heading into the new year. The sector isn’t known for being the best-performing. In fact, it’s only snagged that title once over the past 15 years — in 2018.

Pfizer’s stock has been down for eight straight months, a pattern Krinsky said is “awful” but shares have “major support.” If an investor wanted to try a “Dogs of the Dow” strategy with a non-Dow stock, Pfizer “fits the bill,” the chief market technician said.

Wolf Research’s Chris Senyek says Fed will cut rates for ‘the wrong reasons’ next year

The market is getting ahead of itself, according to Wolfe Research’s chief investment strategist Chris Senyek, particularly as it’s pricing in interest rate cuts that may not necessarily result in the highly anticipated ‘soft landing’ economy.

“I think that we’re very much priced for perfection, if you think about the rally. We’ve only priced in now that soft landing scenario,” Senyek told CNBC’s ‘Squawk on the Street’ earlier Tuesday. “As we get into the spring and early summer, I think the Fed’s going to be cutting for the wrong reasons. I think the economy is going to slow, the lagged impacts of rate hikes will get the economy.”

Senyek added that his firm thinks the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates “a few times” next year, but that he doesn’t think those moves will be enough to stave off a deeper-than-expected downturn. Companies’ wage growth, oil prices, and stronger-for-longer employment levels are some of the major swing factors that could impact disinflation over time, the strategist said.

Something is going break in the economy, says Komal Sri-Kumar

The market is feeling good about the prospects of a soft landing. Komal Sri-Kumar isn’t so sanguine.

“My expectation is that something is going to break in the system,” the president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies told CNBC’s “Money Movers” on Tuesday. “Whether it comes from commercial real estate, whether it is going to be further bank failures, or whether it’s going to be a credit crunch. I think the impact is going to be failing.”

In Geo-Political news, Ukraine struck a large Russian landing warship in Crimea with cruise missiles in an overnight attack that killed at least one person and could hinder any Russian attempt to seize more Ukrainian territory along the Black Sea coast.

Israel’s war on Hamas will last months, Israel’s military chief said, as a string of incidents outside the Gaza Strip highlighted the risk of the conflict spreading.

Companies in focus

Apple Inc. shares ended 0.3% lower, their fourth-straight day of declines, after the Wall Street Journal reported that the tech behemoth appealed a federal trade agency’s ban of two Apple Watch models because of patent violations.

Shares of Intel Corp. rose 5.2% after Israel’s government said the chip giant would invest $25 billion in the country. The investment comes after Intel secured $3.2 billion in incentives from Israel, according to Bloomberg.

Manchester United Ltd. shares ended up 3.4% after British billionaire Jim Ratcliffe clinched a 25% minority stake in the iconic English soccer club.

FedEx Corp. entered into an accelerated share repurchase agreement with Mizuho Markets Americas. 

Bristol Myers Squibb Co. agreed to buy RayzeBio Inc. for about $4.1 billion.

Key events this week: 

# BOJ releases summery of opinions from December meeting, Wednesday 

# China industrial profits, Wednesday 

# Norway retail sales, Wednesday 

# Japan industrial production, Thursday 

# US wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, Thursday

# South Korea industrial production, Thursday 

# Thailand trade, Thursday 

# Mexico unemployment, Thursday 

# Bank of Portugal releases quarterly report on banking system, Thursday 

# South Korea CPI, Friday # Spain CPI, Friday 

# UK nationwide house prices, Friday 

# Brazil unemployment, Friday # Chile unemployment, Friday 

# Colombia unemployment, Friday

Currencies

# The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%

# The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1041

# The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.2726

# The Japanese yen was little changed at 142.43 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

# Bitcoin fell 3.2% to $42,135.36

# Ether fell 2.5% to $2,215.6

Bonds

# The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.89%

Commodities

# West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.3% to a barrel

# Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2068