Asian currencies traded mostly flat to lower on Friday as stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data dampened hopes for near-term interest rate cuts, offering support to the U.S. dollar. The greenback trimmed its weekly losses after a strong labor report boosted confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy, prompting markets to reassess the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The dollar index slipped 0.1% in Asia but remained firm after overnight gains. CME FedWatch data showed the probability of no rate cut in September rising sharply to 32%, although markets still priced in a 63.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut.
The Japanese yen weakened, with USDJPY up 0.3% despite strong May household spending data suggesting persistent inflationary pressure. The Australian dollar edged lower after weak trade figures, while traders braced for a possible rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia next week. The Singapore dollar held steady, while South Korea’s won slipped 0.1%.
China’s yuan remained muted, despite Beijing unveiling new stimulus measures and noting progress in U.S.-China trade relations after Washington eased chip export controls. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s dollar strengthened to its highest in over three years, supported by optimism around semiconductor exports amid improving U.S.-China ties.
The Indian rupee was largely unchanged. Regional sentiment remained fragile ahead of a July 9 deadline when U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to impose steep tariffs on major economies. Trump signaled he may start notifying countries of tariff rates as early as Friday.
Markets remain cautious over the potential global impact of Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill, which could add $3.3 trillion to U.S. debt over the next decade, raising fiscal sustainability concerns amid growing trade tensions.
