Share Market Today Highlights 23 September 2025: Stock markets decline for 3rd straight session on FII outflows, H-1B concerns; Rupee slumps 47p to hit an all-time low of 88.75/$

Avendus on Premier Energies

Initiate ADD, TP Rs 1100

Leading integrated solar module manufacturer; fairly priced

Positive outlook led by favourable macro, domestic policy push & demand-supply mismatch & position as No.3 integrated manufacturer in India

High capacity growth could lead to high production growth, sustained strong GM & robust EBITDA margins due to higher-than-industry utilisation

Est. 31% PAT CAGR over FY25-28, with strong average RoCE of 32 p.c

Being fixed-cost heavy business, profitability could be affected by lower utilisation& realization

Nuvama on Gujarat Flouro

Buy, TP Raised to Rs 5289

DGTR has recommended an anti-dumping duty (ADD) on imports of polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) from China and Russia, ranging from USD2,884/ton to USD5,933/ton

This development is a significant +ve for Co, which stands to gain from a more level playing field against low-cost imports

Consequently, revising up FY26E/27E/28E EPS by 4.9%/7.4%/6.9%

Nomura on Hyundai

Buy, TP Rs 2846

HMC investor day takeaways

HMI volumes to grow at 9% CAGR over CY25-30E; may need to raise capacity

Strong model pipeline with multiple launches ahead

Advancing hybrid and EV tech along with software

Est, export margins for HMI are stronger than domestic margins & thus a rising export mix should support margins

This should drive a 27% EPS CAGR for HMI over FY26-28F.

Nomura on Indian Steel

China outlook: Production cuts expected to accelerate, with ~9% YoY reduction over Aug-Dec

Property sector: Worsening conditions may prompt stimulus; demand-side reforms likely to improve pricing

Domestic fundamentals: Strong Indian market fundamentals should support earnings momentum

Earnings outlook: Project EBITDA CAGR of 25-27% (FY25-28F) across coverage universe

JSW Steel: TP Rs1,300 vs Rs1,220; maintain Buy

Jindal Steel: TP Rs1,150 vs Rs1,080; maintain Buy

Nomura on JSW Steel

Remain positive largely given

Upcoming capacity to align with a cyclical recovery (adding 7MT by FY28F at a 5% CAGR over FY24-28F)

Raw material backward integration (working towards becoming 50% self-reliant in iron-ore)

Co looks better placed than integrated players (expect domestic iron ore prices to remain below import parity prices)

Nomura on JSPL

Remain +ve largely on a/c of

Upcoming capacity addition (adding 6.3MT by FY27F), which should increase share of flat products in its volume mix (around 65% post-expansion vs <20% in FY23)

Enhanced raw material integration

Possibility of cost reduction after commissioning of pellet & captive power plants

Jefferies on Vishal Mega

Buy, TP Rs 175

Despite the soft industry demand environment, co has been able to drive D/D SSSg

Visibility remains high on >80 store adds p.a. & a pilot is underway for smaller formats in <50k towns

VMM maintains leadership in entry-level price points, with a high-quality private-label portfolio

HSBC on Phoenix Mills

Buy, TP Rs 2000

Believe success of Phoenix’s office strategy is critical for both near-term earnings and long-term growth potential

While so far have been disappointed with its office performance, see early signs of improvement

HSBC on Axis BK

Buy, TP Raised to Rs 1340

Two of four levers that had identified earlier (credit costs and NIM) may play out in medium term, supporting earnings

Clarity on AXSB’s ability to deliver high-teens y-o-y EPS growth in FY27e is now greater, while valuation remains

Show more

CLSA on Power Sector

Its Time to buy select Indian regulated utilities as India’s power market, 3rd largest in world, is likely to see a demand uptick in 2HFY26CL & as stocks have been weak YTD on climate change-related demand weakness (down 0.4% April-Aug 2025) on a high base

Nuclear power will be next focus, where NTPC is likely to launch its first US$6bn project this week

Downgrade SJVN from O-PF to HLD, TP 90 on a multi-year delay in two large projects & an expensive val

Upgrade Tata Power from U-PF to HLD, TP Rs 369

A structural turn in the power sector favouring IPPs should benefit relatively inexpensive regulated utilities NTPC, NHPC and CESC

UBS on Bandhan BK

Neutral, TP cut to Rs 188

Sluggish improvement in asset quality expected

Raise credit cost est. for FY26/27E by c20bp

Stock has underperformed over last year (down c22%) & believe greater clarity on asset quality & steady state RoA trajectory is needed for any re-rating.

CITI On Shree Cements

Buy, TP Rs 35500

Management meet takeaways

expects FY26 volumes at 37-38mt, implying 3-6% yoy growth

1H volumes could be 17mt, flattish yoy (implying 2Q volumes at ~8mt, +6% yoy)

Region wise: East (Bihar elections) should grow faster than North and South.

Industry pricing: GST benefit to be passed on — According to mgmt, cement price hikes taken from Jan-Apr25 are largely being sustained thus far.

JPM on L&T

OW, TP Rs 4240

Despite perceptions of capex consolidation in India, L&T continues to benefit from infrastructure spending by central, state and PSU entities due to its diverse and deep skillset

Co’s deep expertise & diversified capabilities position it to capture opportunities as states pursue ambitious capex plans & government maintains a strong policy focus on capex

In Middle East, L&T is capitalizing on sustained oil & gas capex while expanding into renewables & infrastructure, further strengthening its global order book.

Jefferies on Patanjali

Recommendation Buy; Target Price ₹695; Earlier Target ₹670

Company expects a gradual recovery through FY26 as headwinds in the edible oil and food business normalise

With GST rate cuts in Patanjali’s large categories, mgmt. expects demand trends to improve in H2

Near-term could see some de-stocking

Jefferies on Logistics

Container volumes holding up, for now

Major Port container cargo rose 4% YoY in Aug 2025, driving 5% YoY rise in Indian Railways (IR) container volumes

Q2FY26E till date, IR volume growth at 7% YoY is marginally ahead of estimates for ConCor

Front-loading of cargo ahead of the US tariffs and festive buying have supported volumes

Sustainable growth from Oct 2025 holds key

Jefferies India Strategy

Jefferies Economic Indicator for Aug’25 shows activity levels were slightly below the 6-mth avg.

A disappointment considering the low base of last year

Impact of GST rate cut announcement and US tariffs likely moderated broad based indicators such as energy demand

Consumption data was also weak

Rural economy and infra indicators did relatively better

Jefferies Consumer Finances

Hosted 8 NBFCs at Jefferies India Forum 2025

Most expect subdued growth and asset quality trends in 2Q 

Optimistic on better trends in H2 due to GST cut and favorable seasonality

NIMs should expand Q2 onward due to lower rates

Could cushion drag from higher credit costs

Jefferies on India Financial

Hosted 23 financials at Jefferies India Forum

Lenders expect a pickup post GST cut and festive spending

Banks see stable/ improving asset quality and medium-term benefits from rate cuts and easier competition

NBCs see subdued growth and asset quality in Q2, but expect better trends in H2

NIMs should expand Q2 onwards

MOSL on AU Small Bank

Target price 875; maintain BUY rating

Earnings to accelerate from 2H; risk-reward seen as favorable

Strong strategic positioning to sustain robust growth

Improved asset quality to moderate credit costs in 2H and keep them controlled medium term

RBI’s in-principle nod for a universal banking license strengthens brand, aiding deposit mobilization & productivity

NIM outlook: Near-term pressure from residual loan repricing, but asset mix improvement & lower funding costs should aid margins from 2H

Expect 24% loan CAGR (FY26-28); coupled with better operating metrics, likely to deliver 33% earnings CAGR

Recent stock correction has made risk-reward more attractive

MOSL on Tata Consumer

TP Rs 1300 vs Rs 1270 (maintain Buy)

Stronger harvest & lower prices of tea to aid profitability in 2H

With the moderation of tea prices and strong tea crop growth this season

Expect TATACONS’s margins to recover in the Indian beverage business from 2HFY26.

Expect the company to sustain its growth momentum, aided by the mid-to long-term triggers

Expect TATACONS to clock a revenue/EBITDA/PAT

CAGR of 10%/12%/13% during FY25-27

Anand Rathi on IMFA

Recommendation Buy; Target Price ₹ 1510

Capacity expansion, higher stainless-steel demand – growth catalysts

Value-accretive diversification is expected to generate Rs 300 cr revenue yearly with an 8-10% EBITDA margin

>80% of demand for ferro-chrome, a key ingredient in stainless steel production, is driven by the industry

MOSL on Tata Steel

Target Price: ₹180 (from ₹165) – Neutral

Business Outlook: Capacity expansion on track; strong domestic business & improving European ops to drive earnings

Policy Support: Safeguard duty to aid better realizations for domestic steel makers

Challenges: Global tariff uncertainties pose near-term risks; long-term outlook remains positive

Valuations: 7.6x EV/EBITDA & 4.1x FY27E P/B