Sell United Airlines Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 08: A United Airlines plane sits parked at a gate at San Francisco International Airport on October 08, 2025 in San Francisco, California. For a third straight day, flight delays are being seen across the country as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is experiencing continued airport staffing shortages due to the government shutdown. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

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United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL) is set to publish its earnings report on Thursday, October 16, 2025. For traders who focus on events, assessing historical stock behavior around earnings reports can be a useful tool, but the actual performance relative to consensus expectations will ultimately determine the stock’s immediate reaction.

Reviewing the last five years, UAL stock has often shown negative single-day returns following earnings announcements. In 53% of cases, the stock has dropped, with a median negative return of -4.0% and a maximum one-day decline of -10.2%.

Traders can approach this event in two distinct manners:

• Pre-earnings positioning: Traders might contemplate entering a position prior to the earnings announcement, taking these historical probabilities into account.
• Post-earnings positioning: Examine the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are released to inform trading choices.

Current consensus predictions suggest United Airlines will report earnings of $2.67 per share on revenue of $15.29 billion. This contrasts with the earnings of $3.33 per share and revenue of $14.84 billion from the same quarter last year.

From a fundamental viewpoint, United Airlines currently boasts a market capitalization of $33 billion. Over the past twelve months, the company generated $58 billion in revenue, alongside $5.4 billion in operating income and a net income of $3.3 billion, demonstrating operational profitability.

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See earnings reaction history of all stocks

United Airlines’ Historical Odds of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Here are some insights into one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 19 recorded earnings data points over the past five years, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In summary, positive 1D returns occurred about 47% of the time.
• Interestingly, this percentage rises to 58% when analyzing data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
• The median of the 9 positive returns is 5.3%, while the median of the 10 negative returns is -4.0%

Additional information regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is summarized in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A comparatively lower-risk strategy (though it may not be effective if the correlation is weak) is to evaluate the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and implement the suitable trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader can take a “long” position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below you will find correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Keep in mind that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the connection between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

At times, the performance of peers can affect the stock’s reaction post-earnings. In fact, the pricing may begin to adjust prior to the earnings being disclosed. Below is some historical data comparing the post-earnings performance of United Airlines stock with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings immediately before United Airlines. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

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