Dow, Set to Open Down, S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Rising Ahead of Key Inflation Data; Federal Reserve News; Rate Cut Odds; PCE Data; SoFi Stock, Ulta, Meta, Netflix, Coinbase, HPE and More Movers
Stock futures rose early Friday ahead of key inflation data as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes eyed a fourth consecutive day of gains.
Futures on the S&P 500 were 0.2% up early in the day and Nasdaq futures were rising 0.4%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 15 points, or less than 0.1%. The Dow closed lower Thursday, while the other two main indexes notched extended their winning streak to three days.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric–the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index–is likely to be the main event for markets on Friday. It’s the first PCE data since late September and comes just days before the central bank’s next rate decision on Dec.10.
Economists expect core PCE to rise 2.8% year-over-year in September, down from 2.9% in August.
The market is confident the Fed will cut rates by a quarter-point, pricing in an 87% probability according to CME’s FedWatch tool. But the inflation print could shift those odds.
“If the inflation print is hotter than expected, that could mean that the Fed holds rates – which would be bad news for stock markets. If inflation comes in as expected or – even better – below 2.8% that paves the way for a cut,” Hargreaves Lansdown strategist Emma Wall said Friday.
Even a hotter-than-expected reading may not derail hopes for a cut but it could be important for the path of rates into early next year. As it stands, traders don’t see next week’s likely cut being followed up by another one in January–in fact, a March cut is also a 50-50, CME’s FedWatch tool shows. Robust jobs data Thursday, suggesting that the labor market isn’t quite as weak as previously thought, helped the market price in fewer cuts in 2026.
A number of Fed officials have said they need to see more downward progress on inflation before committing to more rate cuts. That’s why Friday’s PCE data will be so closely watched.
