S&P 500, Nasdaq rise as tech leads, UnitedHealth weighs on Dow amid earnings flood

Investors are the keenest about risk since 2021, as exuberance for the economy continues to muffle geopolitical worries, Goldman Sachs strategists said in a client note on Monday.

The level of risk appetite from investors is at a historically abnormal level, Goldman noted, even as a bevy of macro tensions — tariff threats and escalating talk over an annexation from Greenland by the Trump administration, a steep drop-off in the yen’s valuation, and other worries — have led headlines in the new year.

Since 1991, the bank wrote, its risk appetite indicator has only crossed a reading of 1.0 six times. Its current level of 1.09 is in the 98th percentile of readings since 1991.

In most of those episodes, the strategists wrote, equities “delivered positive returns in the subsequent 12 months, but returns slowed down after about 6 months.”

Macro factors will likely play a leading role in outcomes for equities over the next few months, the bank said, writing that when macro surprises have remained positive, returns have skewed moderately positive, while a negative macro turn introduced more downside risk.

But if investors remain keen about risk, the bank said, it points to positive movement for equities.

“In essence, as long as the RAI remains elevated, possibly because of a supportive macro backdrop, equity returns can remain positive,” Goldman’s strategists wrote.

US stocks mostly climbed at Tuesday’s open amid optimism for tech names, with a slide in UnitedHealth (UNH) dragging on the Dow and Wall Street weighing a long-awaited India-EU trade deal.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) picked up 0.6%. Moving in the opposite direction, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped roughly 0.7% on the heels of gains for Wall Street indexes.

The Dow (^DJI) retreated sharply as heavyweight UnitedHealth’s shares tumbled over 15%, as insurers more widely fell on news the Trump administration plans to keep Medicare payment rates steady next year.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is eyeing fresh record highs as strong news from memory chipmakers helped a surge of tech strength ahead of key earnings. “Magnificent Seven” members Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA) are set to release results on Wednesday, followed by Apple (AAPL) on Thursday.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) met analyst expectations on earnings per share for the fourth quarter but reported fourth quarter and full-year 2025 revenues below expectations, according to results released Tuesday morning.

The stock shed more than 15% in premarket trading as earnings were overshadowed by a report from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) proposing that annual payments for Medicare Advantage insurers will increase by an average of just 0.09% for 2027. The announcement sent shares of health insurers tumbling on Tuesday morning.

UnitedHealth reported quarterly earnings per share of $2.11, in line with analyst expectations but down roughly 70% from the same quarter in 2024.

Meanwhile, fourth quarter and full-year revenue came in at $113.2 million and $447.6 million, respectively, compared to estimates of $113.7 million and $447.9 million.

Both fourth quarter and full-year revenues were up 12% against the previous year. The healthcare giant said it expects 2026 revenue to be above $439 billion, which would reflect a 2% year-over-year decline attributed to “right-sizing across the enterprise.”

The company also said it took a $799 million hit to full-year revenue due to a major cyberattack in February 2024 on its subsidiary Change Healthcare.

UnitedHealth’s medical care ratio, a key metric that measures the percentage of premium revenue spent on medical claims and healthcare services for policy members, was 89.1% for 2025. The company is forecasting a ratio of 88.8% plus or minus 50 basis points for 2026.

United Parcel Service (UPS) forecast higher annual revenue ​on Tuesday, as it ‌reduces low-margin deliveries for its biggest ‌customer, Amazon (AMZN), and shifts toward higher-paying shipments.

The delivery giant’s shares rose almost 4% before the bell.

Reuters reports:

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Cloudflare (NET) stock rose 9% before the bell on Tuesday following the launch of its new AI assistant, Clawdbot.

Salesforce (CRM) stock edged higher by 2% following news that the Army signed a $5.6 billion contract with the company. The deal is for 10-years and would give the military access to the company’s technology.

Intel (INTC) stock rose 3% during premarket hours on Tuesday after falling last week following its earnings report. The chipmaker’s stock has been down almost 10% over the last five days.

Fat Brands Inc. (FAT), the owner of Fatburger, Johnny Rockets and Twin Peaks restaurants, saw its stock sink by 40% before the bell on Tuesday after filing for bankruptcy.

Bloomberg News reports:

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Add another bullish Wall Street call on gold into the mix.

Deutsche Bank’s Michael Hsueh on the yellow metal in an early morning note:

“Gold’s continued rise reflects investment motives which may be persistent: higher reserve allocations, and investors raising allocations to non-dollar and real assets. We think USD 6,000/oz is achievable with a weaker dollar this year.”