Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil trader, pushed back its estimates for when oil demand will peak in a new report released Monday, forecasting a peak in the mid-2030s against previous predictions of a peak in the early 2030s.
The commodities trading house said demand could “at its height … reach around 112 million [barrels per day], and is likely to remain close to this level with only minimal decline by the end of the forecast,” adding that demand in 2040 is likely to be around 5 million bpd higher than its current level.
Current global demand sits a bit above 100 million bpd.
“Population growth, rising incomes, and continued urbanisation are sustaining underlying demand for mobility, plastics, chemicals, and energy — and by extensions, oil,” the trading house, which trades roughly 7% of global oil every day, wrote in its new report.
“This dynamic is reinforced in several regions by a stronger industrial policy orientation, with a greater emphasis on domestic competitiveness and security of supply.”
Vitol noted in its report that a slower-than-expected adoption of electric vehicles in the US and Asian markets is one of the primary drivers of its pushed-back demand thesis, “only partly counterbalanced by faster adoption in emerging markets and a more constructive outlook for electric heavy commercial vehicles.”
The firm also sees demand for jet fuel and liquified petroleum gas (LPG) to rise as key drivers of underlying oil demand.
Predictions throughout the industry had coalesced around the view that a deep oversupply glut would push prices down throughout at least the first half of 2026. However, prices have instead strengthened as a mixture of geopolitics and stronger-than-expected demand have dominated this year’s oil market.
Brent crude (BZ=F), the international pricing benchmark, is up 11% on the year, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) is up 10.4%. Talks between the US and Iran over the Iranian regime’s nuclear enrichment program are currently top of mind for oil industry watchers, given Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping chokepoint.
