Key Points
-
The January barometer suggests the S&P 500 could be poised to rise in 2026.
-
Research shows that U.S. markets are incredibly resilient, even in the face of “shock events.”
-
As The Motley Fool’s co-founder, David Gardner, says, “Stocks go down faster than they go up, but go up more than they go down.”
So far in 2026, the S&P 500 index (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is down roughly 7%, but the ride has felt much worse, as a series of events has hampered market returns. Whether it’s the Iran war and the volatile oil prices that followed, persistent tariff and inflation concerns, a weakened consumer in a K-shaped recovery, or the potential for interest rates to rise and further hinder the housing market, there’s no shortage of reasons to worry about a possible stock market crash.
That said, three historical indicators suggest investors shouldn’t panic — especially long-term investors who are looking to hold stocks for decades. Here are those three indicators and why they combine to give me all the confidence I need to keep adding money to the market every week, even amid the market’s current tumult.
Will AI create the world’s first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an “Indispensable Monopoly” providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »
1. The January barometer
This historical indicator is the most peculiar of the trio to me, but I find it fascinating (and a confidence booster) nonetheless. LPL Financial found that since 1950, when the S&P 500 delivers positive returns in January, it goes on to post positive returns for the full year 89% of the time. In these years, the index has risen an average of 16.7%. With the S&P 500 rising 1.5% in January this year, history suggests the odds lean in our favor for 2026.
That said, there’s no clear reasoning for why this indicator generates such strong results. It could be investor optimism at the start of the year, broader market momentum, New Year’s psychology, or astrology (joking, I think). Regardless of the reason, an 89% hit rate is too impressive to ignore, especially given a sample size of 75 years. While I wouldn’t advise building a quantitative investing strategy around the January barometer, it is a nice feather in the cap of long-term investors looking to add to stocks this year.
A notebook sits on a wooden table, next to a small plant in a pot, with “Focus on the Long Term” written in blue across its pages.
Image source: Getty Images.
2. U.S. stock market resilience facing geopolitical events
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist with the Carson Group, compiled a list of dozens of geopolitical and historical events (shock events) that occurred since 1940. He found that despite some of these events being the darkest days in recent history, the median market return of the S&P 500 12 months later was up 7.4%. Even in the face of these challenges, the market was higher one year later 63% of the time — which almost exactly matches the notion that the broader U.S. market rises two years in every three.
It’s entirely possible the shock events in 2026 could cause the year to fall into the 37% of the time where the market doesn’t go higher. But that’s not different than any other year, essentially, major geopolitical event or not, so I’m happy to just keep on adding each week.
3. Short-term catastrophes, but long-term “protopia”
Detrick’s data shows that short-term catastrophes get all the attention, but the market gradually rises over the long haul. This notion rhymes with one of The Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner’s sayings, that “stocks go down faster than they go up, but go up more than they go down.” Technology writer (and Rule Breaker podcast guest) Kevin Kelly similarly explains this idea in relation to everyday life, explaining that negative news often steals the headlines, but that we actually live in a “protopia,” or “a state that is better than today than yesterday, although it might be only a little better.”
Investing will likely never feel easy — especially in an environment like today’s. But if you stick to long-term principles, the reward will be worth the cost of admission. Detrick summed this up beautifully in an interview with The Motley Fool, stating:
The reality is on average, you see a 10% correction once a year, you see a bear market about every three-and-a-half years. You see a 5% mild pullback four times a year and a 3% (pullback) seven times a year. A bunch of numbers. I get it. Just know that it will be scary, will be uncomfortable, but long term investing is one of the best ways to create wealth, one of the best ways to beat inflation, and a lot of times when it’s scary is when you want to really step up.
Stocks to buy when it’s scary
Despite the ongoing market mayhem, there are a number of interesting stocks that have caught my eye recently:
-
E-commerce and cloud-computing juggernaut Amazon trades at 15 times cash from operations, its lowest mark since 2010.
-
Latin American e-commerce and fintech behemoth MercadoLibre trades at 31 times forward earnings, despite growing sales by 45% in its last quarter.
-
Better-for-you grocer Sprouts Farmers Market trades at just 14 times earnings, despite its long-term plan to nearly triple its store count.
-
Animal healthcare leader Zoetis trades at just 17 times forward earnings and offers investors a 1.8% dividend yield, while continuing to dominate its growing niche.
These are just four of many promising stocks trading at reasonable valuations right now. Emboldened by the three historical indicators listed in this article, I look forward to buying these stocks (and many others) while the ongoing turbulence persists.
Should you buy stock in S&P 500 Index right now?
Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $503,861!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,026,987!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 884% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 179% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of March 31, 2026.
Josh Kohn-Lindquist has positions in MercadoLibre, Sprouts Farmers Market, and Zoetis. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, MercadoLibre, Sprouts Farmers Market, and Zoetis. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2028 $75 calls on Sprouts Farmers Market and short January 2028 $85 calls on Sprouts Farmers Market. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
