Trump surprised by stock market comeback amid Iran conflict, thought Dow would be down 20%

President Donald Trump said Tuesday he was surprised by the resiliency of the stock market amid the Iran conflict and assumed the financial damage would be even worse.

In a CNBC interview, the president said he anticipated the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 would have fallen by 20% — the benchmark for a bear market — and oil would be as high as $200 a barrel.

“If you would have told me that oil is at 90 [dollars] as opposed to 200 I would be frankly surprised,” Trump said on “Squawk Box.” “And you know what is happening? Boats are finding other sources. They’re going up to Texas and Louisiana. They’re going to Alaska, they’re going to other places. It’s an amazing phenomenon.”

On the stock market, which the president frequently uses as a barometer for economic success, he said he went into the war expecting a sharp sell-off.

“Look at that S&P [500]. The numbers are what they were when we started this whole thing. I thought they’d be down 20% or down a very substantial amount,” Trump said. “When when it was down more a couple of weeks ago, I was surprised. I thought it would be down much more, and I thought the oil would be much higher, and I’m very happy to say that it wasn’t.”

Markets plunged in the initial weeks of the war amid volatile trading influenced by the intensity of the fighting.

Following a ceasefire announcement, stocks bounced back, with the Dow currently just off its record high established in early February.

In the energy markets, U.S. light, sweet crude surged above $112 a barrel before receding on the ceasefire. Gasoline prices, though, remain above $4 a gallon, according to AAA, about 87 cents above the level a year ago.