USA Property

Real Estate Enters the Next Phase of the Cycle


Important Disclosure Information

Forward-Looking Statements

This commentary may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which reflect our current views with respect to, among other things, the outlook of the global commercial real estate market. You can identify these forward-looking statements by the use of words such as “outlook,” “indicator,” “believes,” “expects,” “potential,” “continues,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “seeks,” “approximately,” “predicts,” “intends,” “plans,” “scheduled,” “estimates,” “anticipates,” “opportunity,” “leads,” “forecast,” “possible” or the negative version of these words or other comparable words.

Such forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. We believe these factors include but are not limited to those described under the section entitled “Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, as such factors may be updated from time to time in our subsequent filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), which are accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov.

These factors should not be construed as exhaustive and should be read in conjunction with the other cautionary statements that are included in this report and in our other periodic filings. The forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this commentary, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update or review any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.


Green Street Advisors, as of November 30, 2025. Reflects the Commercial Property Price Index for All Property, which captures the prices at which US commercial real estate transactions are currently being negotiated and contracted. 7% reflects increase from November 30, 2023 trough.

S&P 500 reflects total gross return, as of November 30, 2025. Oct’22 Trough refers to October 12, 2022. Corporate bonds reflect the total return of the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, as of November 30, 2025. Sep’22 Trough refers to September 29, 2022. During the period from September 30, 2022 to November 30, 2025, S&P 500 total returns were 100.1% and corporate bonds total returns were 37.6%. Comparisons shown are for informational purposes only, do not represent specific investments and are not a portfolio allocation recommendation.

Blackstone Proprietary Data as of September 30, 2025.

US Multifamily: RealPage Market Analytics. Figure reflects Q3’25 TTM starts vs. recent peak (2022). Data reflects institutional-quality product across RealPage Market Analytics Top 150-tracked markets and excludes New York City. US Logistics: CoStar. Figure reflects Q3’25 TTM starts vs. recent peak (2022).

Blackstone Proprietary Data and Green Street Advisors, as of November 21, 2025. Represents total US CMBS volume as of YTD period ended November 21, 2025 compared to YTD period ended November 21, 2024. 2021 peak refers to YTD issuance for the full fiscal year 2021.

Represents historical outperformance of 1-year returns of the NFI-ODCE following three most recent 100bps+ declines in the 10-Year US Treasury Yield compared to the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index and the S&P 500.

Blackstone Proprietary Data, as of November 2025. Represents estimated all-in borrowing costs for high-quality logistics transactions at ~65-70% avg. LTV. Spread reflects weighted average spread across all rating tranches applied to estimated rating agency capital structures from each respective period. ’23 wide reflects peak base rate and spreads for representative BX CMBS transactions in ’23. Nov ’25 reflects all-in borrowing costs across CMBS and bank balance sheet transactions. There can be no assurance that financing costs will continue to decline.

Blackstone Proprietary Data and Green Street Advisors, as of November 21, 2025. Represents total US CMBS volume as of YTD period ended November 21, 2025 compared to YTD period ended November 21, 2024.

International Data Corporation (IDC), as of May 2024. Reflects change in data created, stored and consumed in Zettabytes, from 2010 to 2025 (2024 and 2025 represent year-end estimates).

SimilarWeb, as of August 2025. ChatGPT weekly active users per OpenAI. YouTube, Facebook, Instagram and TikTok users per publicly reported figures.

Dell’Oro estimates, January 2025. Reflects Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta and Oracle. Morgan Stanley Equity Research and publicly reported figures as of Q3’25. Includes finance lease liabilities from Stargate volume.

Size of Blackstone data center portfolio as of September 30, 2025 reflects operating and development assets. Future pipeline reflects prospective pipeline development on owned land.

Refers to Blackstone Real Estate’s equity portfolio. As of Q3’25.

US Census Bureau, as of March 31, 2025. Represents e-commerce sales in 2019 vs. e-commerce sales in the trailing one-year period ended March 31, 2025.

Blackstone Proprietary Data, as of September 2025.

Supply: CoStar, as of June 30, 2025. Represents annual starts and deliveries as a % of prior year-end stock figures.

US Census Bureau. 1960 reflects average housing starts for the TTM period ended December 31, 1960. Today reflects average housing starts for the TTM period ended August 31, 2025. US Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1960 refers to average for the TTM period ended December 31, 1960. Today refers to average for the TTM period ended August 31, 2025.

Brookings Institute, as of November 2024. Reflects the cumulative shortfall for total residential units (owned and rented) from 2006–2023.

Blackstone Proprietary Data as of September 30, 2025. Represents the 1.4x difference between monthly cost of ownership (including mortgage payments, taxes, maintenance costs, insurance, and HOA fees) and monthly rents for HPA and Tricon portfolios. Cost of ownership assumes 30-yr. fixed rate FHA mortgage, 3.5% amortized loan closing costs, and 3.5% down payment.

National Association of Realtors. Represents total first-time home buyers in 2024 relative to the 20-year average.



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