(April 30): Most Emerging Asian stocks and currencies tumbled after oil prices jumped to a four-year high on a report that showed the United States was considering military options against Iran, with the Indonesian rupiah sinking to an all-time low.
The rupiah dropped as much as 0.6% to hit its lowest ever level of 17,385 per US dollar. The oil-exposed currency has fallen 2.2% in April, marking its biggest monthly drop since October 2024.
High oil prices add to the list of concerns that challenge the currency, including Indonesia’s fiscal and governance health.
Oil prices soared to four-year highs after Axios reported the US was considering potential military action against Iran, raising concerns about supply disruptions.
“The Middle East shock has tightened the constraints Indonesia faces. A higher oil bill worsens the fiscal trade-off, and a higher risk premium keeps the IDR more sensitive,” said Krystal Tan, Asia economist with ANZ.
Tan also lifted her 2026 inflation forecast for Indonesia to 3.5% from 3.0%, and expected the Indonesian central bank to increase rates twice, by 25 basis points each, to 5.25% by the end of the year.
Most Emerging Asian equities fell, with losses led by Jakarta’s 2.5% drop to its lowest level since March 16. The benchmark is headed for its fourth-straight monthly loss.
In East Asia, South Korea stocks shed 1.4%, while Taiwan’s benchmark lost 1%, as higher oil prices and concerns about supply disruptions overshadowed Samsung Electronics’ 50-fold jump in chip profits and largely positive earnings from US tech giants.
Rising tensions in the Middle East threaten to slow the momentum of Seoul and Taipei’s tech-driven rally, which helped both benchmarks post their best trading month in decades.
Taiwan stocks marked its best monthly performance since December 2001, while the KOSPI added 30.6% in April, its best month since January 1998. Confidence in technology stocks had surged as chipmakers continued to post strong earnings due to AI-driven demand. Samsung added 88.5% this year so far, while SK Hynix nearly doubled to a US$625.75 billion market capitalization.
In Southeast Asia, Manila stocks dropped as much as 0.9%, set for a second-straight monthly fall. Equities in Thailand fell 0.4%.
Bucking the overall trend, Singapore stocks added 0.6%, breaking a six-session losing streak. Gains were primarily led by the city-state’s major banks, after top lender DBS Group posted first-quarter earnings above forecasts.
Other Asian currencies tumbled. The Philippine peso was slightly down, after the oil-exposed currency touched a record low of 61.693 per dollar earlier in the session. The Malaysian ringgit fell 0.5%.
Uploaded by Lam Seng Fatt
