Currencies

Japan Likely Used $30 Billion in Follow-Up Yen Intervention


(Bloomberg) — Japanese authorities likely used another $30 billion intervening in the currency market just days after an earlier round of action, according to a Bloomberg analysis of central bank accounts, in the latest indication of their resolve to support the yen.

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The size of the entry into the market was probably around ¥4.68 trillion, based on a comparison of Bank of Japan accounts released Thursday and money broker forecasts. Thursday was the first business day after the Golden Week holidays through Wednesday.

Authorities earlier spent an estimated ¥3.86 trillion ($24.7 billion) supporting the yen on April 30, based on a similar calculation using BOJ account data that was revised down on Thursday.

It’s unclear from the latest figures whether there were multiple interventions since the end of last week or on what day such action might have taken place, although a sharp rise in the yen on Wednesday was among moves that generated speculation officials were in the market.

Thursday’s report underscores the Finance Ministry’s determination to deter speculators from betting against the yen, and to keep the currency from weakening past the key threshold of 160 per dollar — a level close to where officials entered the market on several occasions in 2024.

The figures show that the government likely stepped into the market on Friday and then at some point between Monday and Wednesday, according to Tsuyoshi Ueno, chief economist at NLI Research Institute.

“This round of intervention appears to have been effective, as fear is lingering in the market and traders remain on high alert,” Ueno said.

Bessent Visit

Still, the move shows that Tokyo is having to keep digging deep to keep speculators at bay. It also comes at an awkward time, ahead of a visit by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. While Bessent helped Japan to strengthen the yen during an earlier bout of weakness in January, he has hinted at the need for faster interest-rate increases by the BOJ as the main way to stabilize the yen.

The central bank’s next meeting takes place in June. While markets are pricing in a 72% likelihood that the BOJ will raise rates then, according to overnight swaps, Finance Ministry officials will still need to keep speculators in line in the meantime.

In that sense, the latest entry into the market will only buy time for Japan’s authorities and doesn’t change the economic fundamentals behind the yen’s weakness or the dollar’s strength. The economic backdrop continues to favor the dollar. Energy prices remain elevated, even amid hopes of a de-escalation in the Iran conflict and the Federal Reserve appears no closer to cutting US rates.

“The war of nerves between Japan’s authorities and market participants will persist,” Ueno said.

The yen was trading at around 156.36 per dollar Thursday evening in Tokyo. The currency surged on Wednesday, briefly touching a 10-week high of 155.04. In the week since the initial intervention, the yen has recorded several sharp rallies.

Ready to Act

Japan’s top currency official, Atsushi Mimura, said earlier Thursday that authorities stand ready to act as speculative moves persist. He didn’t comment on Wednesday’s currency move.

Absent any intervention, money brokers at Tokyo Tanshi, Central Tanshi and Ueda Yagi Tanshi expected the BOJ’s current account to rise on Friday by ¥166.7 billion. But Thursday’s central bank data showed it expects its current account to fall by ¥4.51 trillion, suggesting another intervention in the currency market.

Katayama and Mimura have repeatedly referred to their close coordination with the US on the currency. They will likely hope that Bessent doesn’t renew his calls for swifter BOJ action during his visit.

“It would be perfect for Japanese authorities if Bessent expresses understanding of their recent currency actions,” Ueno said.

–With assistance from Brian Fowler, Issei Hazama and Go Onomitsu.

(Adds analyst comments.)

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