Michael Burry is questioning SpaceX’s $3-trillion market valuation — and says he’d be tempted to bet against it

SpaceX’s stock-market debut has now minted CEO Elon Musk as the world’s first trillionaire, but not everyone is convinced of the company’s valuation. Among the skeptics is famed investor Michael Burry, who recently revealed that he is choosing neither to buy in, nor to wager against SpaceX, despite his skepticism.

In a post on Substack, (1) the investor, best known for predicting the U.S. housing collapse before the financial crisis, said he examined several options trades betting against the rocket-and-AI company, but has decided to pass.

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Put options are among the most common ways investors bet against a stock. They give the holder the right to sell shares at a predetermined price, called the strike price, before a set expiration date. If the stock falls below that level, the investor profits.

Burry says a put option with a $100 strike price expiring in December 2028 was trading at approximately $25. Similar contracts expiring in June 2027 and December 2026 were priced around $13 and $6.75, respectively.

“Tempted by that one. But no thank you,” Burry said of the December 2026 option, adding that “with any luck,” SpaceX stock will settle somewhere in the mid-$200s.

SpaceX’s stock has been trading between $190 and $200 per share following its highly anticipated debut on June 12. If Burry were to buy put options with a $100 strike price, he’d be betting that the stock would fall below $100 — a drop of more than 50%.

Despite his reputation for bearish (2) (or pessimistic) investing, Burry emphasized that he currently has no position in SpaceX.

“I am not involved with SpaceX now. Neither short nor, ahem, long,” he said.

The investor is no stranger to betting against popular companies. (3) A regulatory filing from November revealed the billionaire’s hedge fund purchased five million put options on Palantir, a surveillance tech company that has had an incredible run on the stock market, and one million on giant computer chip manufacturer Nvidia, among others.

Debate over SpaceX’s valuation

Burry hasn’t just decided to pass on wagers against SpaceX. He’s also calling into question its nearly $3-trillion market valuation, calling it “fundamentally a small space company.”

Burry argues the company is still too niche to be able to dwarf many established businesses, fortunes and national economies, pointing out that it still generates less than $20 billion in annual revenue (4).

“With that $2.8 trillion, SpaceX’s market cap could buy Page, Brin, Bezos, Zuckerberg, Ellison, Arnault, Huang, Buffett, and Ortega and still have $1 trillion left over,” Burry said, naming off a cadre of billionaires.

SpaceX debuted with an IPO priced at $135 a share. (5) It sold more than 555 million shares to raise roughly $75 billion, making it the largest IPO in history.

Burry isn’t alone in his concern about SpaceX’s valuation. There has been heated debate over whether the company is overvalued. On Wednesday, the stock fell for the first time (6) since the company went public, breaking a three-session streak. The reversal raised questions about whether the frenzy around the stock can be sustained.

Musk, however, doesn’t seem too concerned. In a post on X, (7) he said he believes SpaceX could generate $1 trillion of revenue in 2030.

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Echoes of the dot-com bubble

Burry’s skepticism extends beyond SpaceX. He has previously warned the rapid rise of artificial intelligence-related stocks bears similarities to the dot-com bubble of 1999 and 2000. He argues that many technology companies are being driven too aggressively by investor excitement and public momentum.

According to Burry, stock prices have become increasingly disconnected from traditional indicators such as economic data and consumer sentiment. That environment, he believes, creates the potential for sharp corrections.

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