The most-accurate forecaster of dollar-yen in Bloomberg’s latest rankings sees the currency sliding as far as ¥170 against the dollar next year, using a prediction model that largely ignores the news and focuses on technical analysis instead.
Vikram Murarka, founder and chief currency strategist of Kshitij Consultancy Services, makes his calls on the yen from an office thousands of miles away from Tokyo, in Kolkata, India. Still, he was the most accurate forecaster for dollar-yen in a survey last quarter, and one of the few that predicted the yen would weaken past ¥160.
The strategist says one of his strengths is staying focused on market signals rather than every headline out of Japan’s finance ministry or prime minister’s office. Charts fill the screens on his desk, tracking variables such as the ratio between the Nikkei 225 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, short-end rate differentials and the yuan’s strength against the yen.
