The UK mortgage market was on a rollercoaster ride in the first half of 2026, and homeowners hoping for a calmer journey from summer and beyond have quickly been left disappointed.
Turbulence in the Middle East saw the Iran war impact the UK economy, with deals being withdrawn, and two and five-year fixed rates peaking at 5.9 per cent and 5.78 per cent respectively in April.
Moneyfacts’ Rachel Springall points out a temporary US-Iran ceasefire did bring some relief to the market – but the mood has since shifted again later in July.
“Borrowers will be deeply disappointed to see mortgage rates on the rise again, but this just shows how sensitive our financial markets are to geopolitical tensions. As feared, rising swap rates are a signal for lenders to move quickly to re-price their ranges, as fixed mortgage rates tend to follow these moves,” Springall said.
But what is next for borrowers? To give some insight into what the remainder of 2026 could look like and what consumers might want to do in the current market, The Independent spoke to five industry experts across mortgage brokerages, property consultancies and estate agents for their thoughts.
Richard Dana, founder of online mortgage broker Tembo
Dana expects more stability rather than dramatic change for the remainder of 2026. While no one can predict interest rates with certainty, “the most likely scenario is that the Bank of England continues its cautious, data-driven approach, with any moves likely to be gradual rather than significant”.
He adds: “For anyone looking to remortgage or buy their first home, the focus should be less on trying to perfectly time the market and more on finding the right mortgage product for their circumstances.”
Dana’s biggest piece of advice is don’t panic an instead, to seek advice early and make a plan.
The entrepreneur also urges buyers to look beyond the purchase price. “Make sure you understand the total monthly cost of owning the property, not just the mortgage payment, before you commit,” he says.
Sharief Ibrahim, head of residential at consultancy CBRE
Ibrahim is not expecting any increases to the base rate for the remainder of 2026, but cautions we could see further volatility in the rates available to borrowers.
“There is a chance that long-term borrowing costs and swap rates may be impacted as markets react to changes in government. Hopefully, the number of mortgage products available and the rates widely available will remain relatively stable for the remainder of 2026,” he said.
