Jamie Dimon Just Made a Bold Call on the Future of the Stock Market. History Says Investors Should Make This 1 Move
Is now a good time to invest in the stock market? According to Jamie Dimon, the answer is no. The CEO of JPMorgan Chase (JPM +0.27%) said in an interview last week that geopolitical tensions and a highly valued market are issues, and while he might consider some stocks if they were a “great investment,” he wouldn’t invest broadly in the stock market.
Here’s what investors should do.
Global markets and investment banks
JPMorgan Chase is coming off a record quarter with outstanding performance. Revenue increased 27% year over year to a record $58 billion, and net income rose 41% to $21 billion. JPMorgan Chase stock shot up and is sitting at a high of $354 per share.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. Image source: JPMorgan Chase.
The fabulous results came in a quarter of high investment banking activity, and JPMorgan Chase is one of the world’s largest investment banks. It was one of the underwriters of the record-shattering initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies, and it enjoyed robust growth in its equities trading segment as the S&P 500 notched a 15% gain.
However, ever practical Dimon warned of risks moving like “tectonic plates” beneath the surface. Global wars decrease economic stability, and spiking oil prices could quickly and severely impact the macroeconomy.
Today’s Change
(0.27%) $0.94
Current Price
$351.79
Key Data Points
Market Cap
Day’s Range
$349.70 – $354.47
52wk Range
$279.10 – $359.30
Volume
5K
Avg Vol
9.3M
Dividend Yield
1.71%
In an interview on The Master Investor podcast, he said that inflated artificial intelligence stocks are keeping him away from investing in the stock market today. “Will it pay off?” he asked, “Probably. Will it pay off the way you expect, and in the timetable you expect? Definitely not.”
Investors should make this one move
So what should investors do? The answer is pretty simple, according to history: Keep investing. Since the highs and lows are unknowable, continuing to add funds under all circumstances provides you with the greatest long-term opportunities. According to historical studies, investors who buy under all conditions outperform those who stay out and try to time the market.
The history is as recent as 2022, the most recent year when the S&P 500 posted an annual loss. It dropped nearly 20% that year, right before the AI revolution. It was looking expensive then, too; today, the cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio is at its second-highest level ever, implying an overvalued market. Until now, though, 2022 was its second-highest level, and indeed, preceded a correction. However, it has nearly doubled since 2023.
And even including the 2022 drop, it has gained 245% over the past 10 years.
While Jamie Dimon said he wouldn’t invest today, keep in mind that it was one sentence in a broader interview, not a credo about his investing style — he also said he’d still buy great stocks. Even Warren Buffett and Greg Abel, who are famous for avoiding buying in a rich market, have bought stocks recently. In this kind of market, you should be choosy about what you buy, for sure, but don’t stop investing.
