Global stock indexes also edged higher on Monday, as traders looked for cues on when the US Federal Reserve might begin cutting interest rates. Analysts and financial market expectations both point to May as a potential start for rate cuts this year.
ETF exuberance
The primary driver behind bitcoin’s recent price appreciation “can be attributed to the increased inflow into BTC spot ETFs”, said Matteo Greco, a research analyst at fintech investment firm Fineqia International, in a research note.
The US securities regulator on January 10 approved the first US spot bitcoin ETFs, a watershed for the world’s largest cryptocurrency and the broader crypto industry, which had been trying to bring such a product to market for more than a decade.
Greco in particular noted that outflows from Grayscale Investment’s Grayscale Bitcoin Trust — which received approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)in January to convert to an ETF — have begun to slow.
“While GBTC recorded a cumulative outflow of $US415 million last week, representing a significant reduction from previous weeks, BTC Spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of about $US1.2 billion during the same period, marking the highest weekly inflow since their launch,” he said.
Analysts at Bernstein have estimated that flows into the new ETFs will build up gradually to cross $US10 billion in 2024, while Standard Chartered analysts have said the products could draw $US50 billion to $US100 billion this year alone. Other analysts have said inflows could be $US55 billion over five years.
The market is also eyeing seven pending applications in front of the US SEC for ETFs tied to the spot price of ether. The SEC is due to deliver a final decision on several of those proposals by May.
Investors are also looking eagerly to the next bitcoin “halving”, expected in April, analysts say. That process is designed to slow the release of bitcoin, whose supply is capped at 21 million tokens – of which 19 million have already been created. Bitcoin rallied on the previous three halvings, the most recent of which was in 2020.
“With fourth bitcoin halving, a first Fed interest rate cut and potential ethereum spot ETF approval, all are significant for what is the smallest, youngest and most retail-dominated asset class,” said Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at eToro.
Reuters
