Stock market today: Oil rally pressures Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, reviving inflation worries
US stocks pulled back on Thursday as oil prices jumped, reigniting inflation concerns and dragging down Treasury bonds.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped 0.2% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.3% while contracts for the Nasdaq-100 (^IXIC) retreated 0.7%. Stocks slipped from record highs on Wednesday.
51,108.82 -71.05 (-0.14%)
As of 1:16:49 PM EDT. Market Open.
^DJI ^GSPC ^IXIC
Markets were on edge as oil prices surged earlier Thursday, easing back after President Trump said the US “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections.” The president’s comments came after an earlier report that the President was considering striking Iran before the midterm elections.
Brent crude oil futures (BZ=F) and US benchmark WTI crude (CL=F) eased back and remain above $103 per barrel and $91 per barrel, respectively.
A global bond rout rolled on against that backdrop. Treasury yields remained near multidecade highs — with the 10-year yield (^TNX) at 5.29% and the 30-year yield (^TYX) at 5.67% — reflecting tightening financial conditions.
At the Fed’s September meeting, officials were unanimous in their decision to raise interest rates, citing persistently high inflation. Though recent economic data have changed the picture somewhat, inflation remains the key pressure point for the central bank. Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller is speaking in Turkey today, providing his thinking on the path of monetary policy.
Meanwhile, investors are gearing up for the third quarter earnings season, with PepsiCo (PEP) quarterly results serving as the appetizer. FactSet estimates that the S&P 500 earnings grew 29.5% in Q3. If that figure holds, it would represent the third consecutive quarter with earnings growth above 25%.
On the economic data front, initial jobless claims ticked down for the week ending Oct. 3 to 197,000, signaling that layoffs remain low.
LIVE 11 updates
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Oil trims gains after Trump says US will not attack Iran before the mid-term elections.
Oil prices trimmed gains on Thursday after President Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 mid-term elections.
Brent crude (BZ=F) fell to $103 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F) dropped to $90 a barrel.
The move came after Trump posted on social media,”We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
He went on to say “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.”
Read more here.
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Rapid bond yield moves have preceded nearly every major financial blowup
The risk around rising bond yields isn’t just higher borrowing costs. It’s what happens when yields move too far too fast.
Macquarie strategists pointed out that “almost all of the high-profile financial blow-outs” over the past five decades have occurred in the immediate aftermath of rapid moves in bond yields.
“That is, in the past 50 years, sharp increases (or sharp decreases) in long-term yields have taken place every few years, and when they have taken place, another financial company, or heavy borrower has imploded,” Macquarie global strategists Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry wrote on Wednesday.
Source: Bloomberg LP, Macquarie -
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Jeff Bezos: ‘Blue Origin will have an IPO’
Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX) may soon face more competition in the public markets — from fellow billionaire Jeff Bezos.
Speaking on Fox News Channel’s “Special Report with Bret Baier,” Bezos said his space company Blue Origin would seek an IPO in the coming years.
“I think, someday, Blue Origin will have an IPO,” Bezos said. “It would be several years from now. But it probably makes sense for Blue Origin to be a public company at some point.”
Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and Blue Origin, and co-founder and co-CEO of Prometheus, speaks during the 10th edition of the VivaTech technology startups and innovation fair in Paris, France, June 17, 2026. REUTERS/Abdul Saboor/File Photo · REUTERS / REUTERS Bezos’s remarks come after Musk’s SpaceX went public in June, raising $75 billion in its IPO. Other much-discussed upcoming IPOs include AI companies Anthropic (ANTH.PVT) and OpenAI (OPAI.PVT). However, market uncertainty have caused others, like smart ring maker Oura, to postpone their debuts.
Blue Origin just raised $10 billion from outside investors in its latest funding round, which valued the company at $140 billion, per the Wall Street Journal. Bezos personally contributed $2 billion in the round.
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Oil rises as Middle East supply concerns persist amid shipping attacks
Reuters reports:
Oil prices rose on Thursday on persistent worries about supply from the key Middle East producing region amid an increase in attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
Prices settled lower on Wednesday after the International Energy Agency agreed to accelerate the release of oil stocks and to prioritize diesel supplies under a plan launched in March, as governments seek to tackle record fuel prices and supply disruptions caused by the Iran war.
However, threats to oil shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, which carried shipments equal to about 20% of global oil and fuel before the war, have increased in October as the US-Israeli conflict with Iran enters its eighth month.
Attacks on tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz hit their highest last week of any week since the Iran war began as Gulf producers increase exports. The increase in attacks is occurring as more crude is flowing out of the Gulf but at higher costs and risk to cargoes and crew.
FILE PHOTO: Vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, October 2, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo · Reuters / REUTERS
