Investing.com — Applied Materials (AMAT) reports fiscal Q4 2026 on Thursday, Nov 12, after the close. The stock trades at $403.89 (+8.42%) as of Nov 11, 12:34 PM EST, with a market cap of about $320B. That is a bounce, but it sits well below the 52-week high of $739.67. The 1M return is -20.34%.
The setup is unusual. Estimates have climbed sharply while the share price has fallen sharply. Consensus EPS is up 9.87% over 90 days, and the stock is down 23.16% over the same window.
Applied Materials (AMAT): $403.89 || Fwd P/E 29.0x || Fair value upside -19.9% (as of Nov 11, 12:34 PM EST) || RSI 42.2
What Consensus Expects
The bar is high. Revenue has gone from $6.80B to $9.12B in three quarters. Consensus needs another $1.18B sequential jump.
The Beat Streak vs. the Reaction
The company has beaten EPS in each of the last four quarters:
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Q3 FY26: EPS $3.50 vs $3.40 est., revenue $9.12B vs $8.99B. The stock fell -7.47% on the print.
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Q2 FY26: EPS $2.86 vs $2.68 est. The reaction was +0.00%.
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Q1 FY26: EPS $2.38 vs $2.21 est. The reaction was +4.42%.
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Q4 FY25: EPS $2.17 vs $2.11 est. The reaction was -2.05%.
Beats are routine, so they are not enough on their own. The August print beat and the stock still fell, which suggests guidance and tone drive the move.
Five Things to Watch
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FQ1 guidance. Consensus has Jan-quarter revenue at $10.83B and EPS at $4.23. A guide below that would matter more than the Q4 beat. The Oct 22 coverage mentioned unresolved guidance uncertainty from the investor day.
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Gross margin. It has widened from 48.0% to 50.3% over the last three reported quarters. Another gain would support the earnings-growth case. A stall would suggest the mix or pricing tailwind is fading.
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China and export controls. Post-election fears of tighter AI regulation and chip export rules drove a roughly 37% one-month slide, per Investing.com. Analysts called these fears overblown. Management commentary on China mix is the key swing factor. Read more (Nov 9, 2026)
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Capacity and supply constraints. Citi’s Atif Malik argued that Applied’s plan to more than double manufacturing capacity should help it handle supply constraints better than peers. Look for delivery timing and backlog commentary.
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Read-through from peers. Intel’s weak Q4 outlook and Amazon’s negative free cash flow hit the group on Oct 30. Read more (Oct 30, 2026) Cisco (CSCO) reports the same evening, so both ends of the “picks and shovels” AI trade report together. Read more (Nov 10, 2026)
