Most Asian currencies gained modestly on Friday, while the U.S. dollar nursed losses as traders maintained bets on an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. Despite hotter-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data, markets are pricing in a 96.8% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s September 16–17 meeting, according to CME FedWatch.
The Indian rupee stood out as an underperformer, sliding to a record low of 88.499 per dollar. Sentiment soured after reports that Washington urged the EU and G7 to impose harsher tariffs on Russian oil buyers, particularly India and China. The move overshadowed progress in U.S.–India trade talks, pushing the rupee down 0.2% for the week.
The Australian dollar outshined regional peers, rising 1.8% this week as stronger commodity prices, especially metals, boosted demand. Taiwan’s dollar also advanced, with the USD/TWD pair down 0.8%, supported by capital inflows into local technology stocks amid optimism over lower U.S. interest rates.
The Chinese yuan gained 0.1% but showed only mild weekly gains, as strong government support was offset by lackluster trade and inflation data, fueling concerns over economic cooling. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen fluctuated sharply following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s sudden resignation but ended the week marginally higher.
Elsewhere, Singapore’s dollar edged up 0.1%, while South Korea’s won dipped 0.1%. The dollar index slipped 0.2% this week, pressured by soft U.S. labor market data and expectations that inflationary risks from potential new tariffs under President Donald Trump may not be as severe as feared.
With traders focused on the Fed, Asian currencies look set for further moves next week depending on the size of the rate cut and the central bank’s forward guidance.
