Asian stocks rise as Middle East tensions wane; currencies mixed

Repeats for Southeast Asia

By Ayushman Ojha

April 22 (Reuters) –Most emerging Asian equities rose on Monday as investors sought riskier assets as fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East receded, while currencies were mixed as the dollar cast a shadow on support from strong inflation and hawkish Fed comments.

The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares .MIAP00000PUS rose 0.93% on Monday after declining 4.5% in the last week, when Mideast tensions heightened from Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran.

“The good news for now is that Iranian officials seem to be downplaying the Israeli response, but the situation is fluid and tensions can ratchet up quickly,” analysts at MUFG wrote.

Stocks in Singapore .STI rose as much as 2%, while Malaysian shares .KLSE added as much as 0.8%. In South Korea, shares .KS11 gained up to 1.4%, while Thailand stock .SETI jumped as much as 1.2%.

Bucking the trend, Indonesian shares .JKSE slipped 0.8% to its lowest level since Dec. 1.

A verdict on two challenges to the outcome of country’s February’s presidential election is Monday, after the losing candidate alleged the state had interfered in favour of winner Prabowo Subianto.

Currencies in the region were mixed as the U.S. dollar stayed near its highs and comments from the Federal Reserve and hotter than anticipated inflation data last week led to markets scaling back expectations for rate cuts, not just in the United States but also in other developed economies.

“For now, the dominant FX driver in Asia continues to be the high level of U.S. rates relative to Asia, exacerbated by bouts of risk aversion, and we’ll likely have to see these factors change to witness a sustained turn in Asian currencies,” MUFG analysts said in a note.

The Thai baht THB=TH weakened as much as 0.5% to its lowest level since October 2023, while Taiwanese dollar TWD=TP fell 0.3% to its lowest level since 2016.

The Malaysian ringgit MYR= and the Philippine peso PHP= were largely unchanged on Monday.

The Indonesian rupiah IDR= gained 0.3%. Indonesia’s central bank on Friday intervened “more boldly to maintain market confidence” as the rupiah weakened.

Bank Indonesia is set to announce its policy rate decision on Wednesday.

Analysts at Barclays expect the central bank to begin cutting in first quarter of 2025. However, for April 24, they expect a rate increase, “possibly not just by 25bp but even up to 50bp”.

“We think a hike is likely to have more value in terms of its signalling effect rather than its immediate impact on the IDR,” they wrote.

Meanwhile, data from Seoul showed exports for the first 20 days of April rose 11.1% from the same period the year before, while Taiwan reports March export orders later in the day.

Additionally, the Vietnamese dong VND= was largely unchanged, hovering near its lowest level on record touched during last week.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** Bank of Korea chief watching Middle East tensions for FX, growth outlook reviews

** China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged, in line with expectations

** Indonesia court to rule on petitions seeking presidential election re-run

Reporting by Ayushman Ojha in Bengaluru