Dec 11 (Reuters) – Analysts ramped up long bets on most Asian currencies on stronger growth prospects and weakness in the greenback, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, while short positions on the Indian rupee surged to a 10-month high.
They turned bullish on the Singapore dollar, upped their long positions on the Thai baht, and pushed long bets on the Malaysian ringgit to their highest levels since mid-June, according to a fortnightly poll of 11 respondents.
The ringgit has risen 8.8% so far this year, on track to notch its strongest performance since 2017.
The Malaysian central bank’s tight monetary stance, capped by just a modest quarter-point move in 2025, alongside brighter growth prospects have lifted the currency.
The ringgit is likely to find support from fiscal reforms, strong domestic-led investment outlook, and narrowing yield differentials with the U.S., said Lloyd Chan, senior currency analyst with MUFG.
Meanwhile, recent weakness in the dollar index on bets of further policy easing has also helped regional currencies. All poll responses were collected before the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 25-basis-points on Wednesday.
Long positions on the Chinese yuan also rose to their highest since late January 2023.
The currency rose for a fourth straight month in November – its longest string of monthly gains in four years.
A record export surplus in the first 11 months of the year has buoyed the yuan. At the same time, Beijing is planning to expand domestic demand and shore up the broader economy in 2026 with a more proactive policy push.
Short bets on Indonesian rupiah, South Korean won and Taiwan dollar have decreased.
Indonesia’s domestic economy has proven resilient, powered by robust fiscal stimulus and a brighter growth outlook. In contrast, the sharp weakness in the won has forced government authorities to issue a stern warning to markets.
The Indian rupee, on the other hand, had short bets surging to their highest levels in ten months. The currency is set to mark its eighth straight year of depreciation with a more than 5% loss.
Analysts at Barclays see limited potential for USDINR to move lower, noting that the Reserve Bank of India does not appear to be particularly concerned about the fall, given the inflation gap between India and advanced economies.
They expect the unit to reach 94 per dollar by end of 2026.
“As long as the currency continues on its ‘crawl’, moving roughly along the path that forwards imply, it should not prompt major resistance from the RBI.”
Meanwhile, the Philippine central bank’s aggressive rate‑cutting cycle has fuelled a clear tilt toward bearish bets on the peso. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is expected to cut rates for the fifth consecutive meeting later in the day.
The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.
The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.
The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):
DATE USD/CNY USD/KRW USD/SGD USD/IDR USD/TWD USD/INR USD/MYR USD/PHP USD/THB
11-Dec-25 -1.25 1.29 -0.27 0.91 0.52 1.60 -1.19 0.97 -0.72
27-Nov-25 -0.96 1.62 0.02 1.15 0.63 1.21 -0.94 0.91 -0.22
13-Nov-25 -0.98 1.75 0.00 1.29 0.47 0.61 -0.90 0.93 -0.30
30-Oct-25 -0.80 1.52 -0.17 1.11 0.20 0.55 -0.35 1.14 -0.03
16-Oct-25 -0.47 1.53 0.14 1.29 0.11 1.18 -0.27 0.62 -0.16
02-Oct-25 -0.67 0.80 -0.38 1.47 -0.32 1.53 -0.56 0.44 -0.76
18-Sep-25 -1.05 -0.20 -0.64 0.85 -0.44 1.50 -0.65 -0.22 -1.16
04-Sep-25 -0.77 0.10 -0.71 0.53 0.29 1.42 -0.63 -0.02 -0.46
(Reporting by Sneha Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)
Copyright 2025 Thomson Reuters.
