Regional Dynamics and Trade Shifts
China’s economy faces slowing growth, forecast at 4.5% in 2025 versus 5.2% in 2024, according to Bloomberg data from February 6, 2025.
The property sector continues its multi-year correction while demographic pressures weigh on productivity.
Chinese consumers increasingly favour domestic products, while more than 60% of European companies surveyed by the European Central Bank view China as a potential risk to their supply chains.
Europe’s industrial sector has contracted more than 20% from pre-pandemic levels, hit by Russian gas supply losses and Chinese competition.
The region’s largest companies spent half as much on R&D as US counterparts from 2015 to 2022.
Both Europe and Japan have recorded their highest monthly bankruptcy filings since 2015 and 2013 respectively. France, Italy, and Poland must achieve primary surpluses exceeding 1.5% of GDP to meet reinstated fiscal rules, despite 2023 deficits.
The UK Treasury’s review revealed unrealistic public spending plans and overly optimistic growth forecasts, potentially forcing the incoming Labour government to implement austerity measures.
In Australia, GDP growth fell from 1.9% in mid-2023 to 0.8% by Q3 2024, while net migration will halve to 260,000 in 2024-25 from its peak of 528,000 in 2022-23.
