The Swiss franc is traditionally regarded as a safe haven. In the current context of soaring equity indices, it is therefore logical to expect it to underperform the other main currencies. But does this call into question the underlying trend? Let’s take a look at the EURCHF.
The Swiss currency had a marked underperformance against the euro since the start of the year.
Source: Bloomberg
The chart above shows the EURCHF’s daily trend since the beginning of 2023. As you can see, the pair is now close to the second standard deviation of a descending linear regression channel, resisting around the 0.95 level. Interestingly, this zone, which extends to 0.9550, is the point of conjunction of several symmetries (in red). Clearly, as long as this resistance has not been breached, it is more prudent to favor short positions with a view to a resumption of the downtrend, ideally towards new annual lows.
Elsewhere in the world, the Aussie and Kiwi continue to weaken against the dollar, which continues to benefit from the postponement of the first interest-rate cuts, against a backdrop of inflation that, while stable, is well above the 2% target set by the US Federal Reserve. The same applies to the Scandinavian currencies (NOK and SEK), which remain under pressure.
