The Euro is proving robust against the Dollar (gaining +0.15% to 1.0825 and +1.2% over the past week).
The $-Index is down symmetrically by -0.15%, falling back below the 105 mark (to 104.95).
Forex traders, torn between a certain caution linked to the ‘political fact’ and economic dials turning red, have chosen to ‘trust’ the French vote… which is unlikely to give a majority to the ‘extremes’.
They have therefore decided to ignore the ‘macro’ figures, which are not good in France (nor in Germany): in May in France, production was down sharply over one month in both manufacturing (-2.7% after +0.5% in April) and industry as a whole (-2.1% after +0.6%), according to Insee’s CVS-CJO data.
Furthermore, in May 2024, France’s trade balance deteriorated once again, according to CVS-CJO data from the customs administration, with the deficit widening to 7.99 billion euros from 7.56 billion the previous month.
But Germany is not faring any better, with a -2.5% fall in German industrial output in volume terms in May, according to Destatis (which confirms a stagnation in April).
The Dollar could have reacted to the eagerly awaited NFP figures… but nothing happened: once again, it became a “non-event” (the Dollar’s fall was already a foregone conclusion before the NFP).
Job creation was in line with expectations: the US economy generated 206,000 non-farm jobs in June, according to the Labor Department (consensus +200,000/+210,000).
The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 points to 4.1%, where economists were expecting only 4%, while the labor force participation rate stood at 62.6%, and average hourly earnings rose at an annual rate of 3.9%.
On the other hand, nonfarm job creation for the previous 2 months was revised sharply downwards, from 165.000 to 108,000 for April and from 272,000 to 218,000 for May, for a total revision balance of -111,000.
IN THE UK, Labour’s unsurprising victory in yesterday’s general election, which ended 14 years of Conservative rule, was greeted with satisfaction by Forex traders: the Pound gained +0.4% to $1.2810, as Keir Starmer’s economic program ruled out the risk of slipping deficits and adventurous stimulus measures.
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