The dollar is benefiting from a “risk-off” reflex in the face of a political situation that is somewhat complicated for certain European leaders, and which appears inextricable in France.
The $-Index climbs a further +0.4% to 105.65, returning to its best levels since May 2.
In the face of all the uncertainties that arose last Sunday at around 9.10 p.m., the euro (-0.4% to 1.0695/1.0700) is undergoing its sharpest weekly correction since early April.
Liquidity flows are clearly heading for the United States: Wall Street, on the other hand, is holding firm on Friday, and the Nasdaq (unchanged or up a handful of points at 17,670) could well go 5/5 for a weekly gain of over 3%… while the CAC40 has fallen by -6.25% this week.
This represents a historic differential of over 9% with the CAC40: a weekly score totally unprecedented in the 21st century.
US T-Bonds are also benefiting from a communicating effect, easing by -2.5pts to 4.216% (i.e. -21 basis points over the week), but this “windfall effect” should not overshadow fears about the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory, which could result in fewer rate cuts than hoped for over the coming months, or even just one if Jerome Powell’s latest comments on Wednesday evening (FOMC) are anything to go by.
Finally, the latest statistics show that inflation is under better control in the US, reinforcing the scenario of a “soft landing” for the US economy this summer.
Import price figures were down 0.4% in May on the previous month (and perfectly stable excluding petroleum products).
At the same time, export prices fell by 2.1% (and -2.1% excluding foodstuffs), according to the Labor Department.
Over 12 months, i.e. between May 2023 and May 2024, US import prices rose by 1.1% (+0.5% excluding petroleum products) and export prices rose by 0.6% (+1.5% excluding foodstuffs).
US consumer confidence fell sharply by -5.1% to 65.6, according to the University of Michigan’s initial estimate: signals of weakness are multiplying, but the labor market seems to remain robust… but hundreds of thousands of full-time jobs have been lost since the beginning of the year.
In France, consumer prices remained stable over one month in May 2024 and rose by 2.3% over one year (after 2.2% in April 2024), according to Insee. This slight rise in inflation is the result of a further acceleration over one year in energy prices (+5.7% after +3.8%) linked to a base effect on petroleum product prices (+2.9% after -0.7%), according to Insee.
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