By Jamie McGeever
(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
Asian markets move up a gear on Thursday as the region’s economic calendar fills up, with the general mood likely to be one of optimism following the rebound in most asset classes the previous day.
China is still closed but markets in Hong Kong and most of Asia are up and running after the Lunar New Year break, and the local highlights on Thursday will include fourth quarter GDP figures from Japan, Australian unemployment and an interest rate decision from the Philippines.
That is set against a day of recovery across most major markets on Wednesday, following the previous day’s choppy moves sparked by hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation figures.
The dollar, U.S. bond yields and implied volatility all eased; Wall Street and global stocks recovered some ground; and investors drew a collective sigh of relief that January’s U.S. inflation print didn’t leave a more lasting mark.
At least not immediately. It’s worth pointing out that U.S. inflation still fell, just not as much as most people had expected. A faster-than-expected fall in UK inflation on Wednesday might have helped calm some nerves too.
In currency markets, the yen will take center stage again on Thursday after its fall through 150.00 per dollar this week. Warnings on Wednesday from Japan’s finance minister Shunichi Suzuki that rapid FX moves are “undesirable” appear to have helped stall its decline for now.
Japanese GDP data on Thursday could move the dial on Bank of Japan policy expectations, and therefore the yen. The consensus is for the economy to make a modest return to expansion after contracting in July-September, although analysts warn that private consumption remains fragile.
Elsewhere in FX, China’s offshore yuan briefly hit a three-month low on Wednesday before recovering. It will be worth watching the onshore yuan when markets re-open on Monday.
The Philippine central bank on Thursday is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.50% as inflation remains within the bank’s 2% to 4% target range, and not cut it until the third quarter of 2024.
The peso was one of the few Asian currencies to weaken against the dollar on Wednesday. While the consensus is for rate cuts to begin in the second half of the year, a strong minority of economists in the Reuters poll, nine of 21, expect the first move before the end of June.
Crypto enthusiasts in Asia wake up to the news that bitcoin’s market cap surpassed $1 trillion on Wednesday for the first time since November 2021, lifted by inflows to U.S. spot bitcoin exchange traded funds.
Bitcoin rose as much as 5% on the day to just above $52,000, its latest 25-month high and enough to push the token’s market cap to $1.017 trillion according to price platform CoinGecko.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:
– Japan GDP (Q4)
– Philippines central bank rate decision
– Australia unemployment (January)
(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)
