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Market pressure is growing on the People’s Bank of China to allow the renminbi to weaken, as traders bet that the yawning gap with US borrowing costs will lead more investors to sell out of the Chinese currency.
China’s central bank has maintained a strong yuan policy so far this year, keeping its daily fixing — or reference rate around which the currency is allowed to trade — within an unusually narrow range of 7.09 to 7.11 against the US dollar.
But the currency has recently traded as much as 2 per cent below the fixing rate — the maximum variation the central bank has said it will allow — for the first time in eight years, indicating mounting selling pressure.
Markets are pushing for a weaker yuan to reflect the gap in bond yields with the US — 10-year Treasury yields trade at 4.57 per cent, while 10-year Chinese government bonds offer just 2.3 per cent. Capital tends to flow to markets where interest rates are higher.
“A great number of traders are expecting a one-off depreciation of the yuan, similar to what occurred in 2015, due to the enormous downward pressure that has built up over the past few months,” said one Shanghai-based currency trader.
In 2015, China suddenly devalued the renminbi, which it regarded as overvalued. That triggered turmoil in financial markets, including sharp selling of the yuan by global managers, severe capital outflows and a Rmb1tn fall in the country’s foreign reserves as regulators intervened to try to calm markets.
The central bank is reluctant to allow a rapid shift in the exchange rate, instead favouring stability. President Xi Jinping talked of “a strong currency” as one of his top priorities at the start of this year, as part of plans to strengthen China’s status as a financial powerhouse. A depreciation of the renminbi would have huge implications for global trade, potentially inflaming tensions with Washington by increasing the competitiveness of Chinese exports to the US.
How China manages the RMB
Every day, the authorities calculate a central parity rate against the US dollar, also known as the fixing rate. Traders regard this rate as a main tool to communicate policy guidance from the central bank.
The market exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate within plus or minus 2 per cent of the fixing rate. This is known as the band.
The authorities have a wide range of formal and informal tools to intervene and keep the market rate within the band, which also includes the mobilisation of cash sitting in state banks to defend the yuan. China has been trying to allow more flexibility in the exchange rate, adjusting the fixing rate over time to reflect market pressures.
Recently, however, the fixing rate has been unusually stable even though the market rate is close to the weaker end of the band. That suggests there are depreciation pressures on the RMB that the authorities are resisting.
Asked about the gap between the fixing and spot rates, the PBoC said it had “the confidence, conditions, and ability to maintain the basic stability of the renminbi exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level” and would “resolutely prevent the risk of exchange rate overshooting”.
Import and export data had improved this year, the central bank said, adding: “As a series of macro policies gradually come into effect, China’s economic recovery will be further consolidated and strengthened, supporting the renminbi exchange rate”.
High interest rates in western economies — particularly the US — have recently fuelled an even sharper decline in other Asian currencies against the dollar.
While the yuan has weakened about 2 per cent against the US dollar this year, the Japanese yen has dropped by more than 11 per cent and the Korean won has fallen more than 5 per cent. Both are trade competitors with China.
Analysts are divided on which way the Chinese currency will move next.
“Yuan bears still dominate the market for the time being,” said Tiffany Wang, a China foreign exchange and rates strategist at JPMorgan, with many investors pointing to the gap in interest rates.
While the US Federal Reserve is expected to begin lowering rates later this year, “a shallower cutting cycle this time round will keep US yields above China for the foreseeable future,” she said.
The PBoC has said it would like to keep interest rates low or cut them if required, responding to weakness in China’s economy following the coronavirus pandemic and a property market crisis.
Some traders meanwhile believe the yuan could suffer if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election in November and increases tariffs on Chinese goods.
IMF first deputy managing director Gita Gopinath urged Beijing on Wednesday to consider allowing more flexibility on its exchange rate, saying this “would reduce deflation risks and help absorb external shocks”.
Despite market pressure, however, the PBoC has not signalled any plans to alter its course.
Kevin Liu, chief offshore China and overseas strategist of CICC Research, said it would send a mixed signal if China weakened the yuan even while it increased central government investment to try to beef up growth. The recent issuance of long-dated bonds should offer a “positive catalyst” to support the currency, he said, as more central government spending should support the economy in the medium term.
From a simple trade perspective, the yuan is not overvalued, said Chen Long, co-founder of Plenum, a Beijing-based consultancy.
“China’s export growth has been strong, and the renminbi usually gains against the US dollar under such circumstances,” Chen said.
Still, the PBoC’s reluctance to let the yuan weaken against the dollar is a clear deviation from its previous policy, under which the it tracked a basket of currencies. That has left the central bank uncomfortably exposed.
One currency trader at a state bank in Beijing said monetary authorities were weighing how to release pent-up market pressures on the yuan, for instance by allowing a gradual weakening of fixings. Traders from Citic Securities believe the central bank could slowly weaken the fixing rate towards 7.11 to 7.12 per dollar over the coming weeks, while avoiding any sharp movement.
Additional reporting by Joe Leahy in Beijing
