China inflation, Australia inflation, Bank of Korea

Energy stocks may have had a tough 2023, but one trader see opportunities to play the theme into the new year, naming sectors — and stocks — he likes.

Bill Perkins, CEO and head trader at Skylar Capital Management, said he’s “mildly bullish” on oil, but identified several opportunities for retail investors.

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— Amala Balakrishner

Oil prices ended the week higher on fears that the Israel-Hamas war could escalate into a regional conflict.

The West Texas Intermediate contract for February settled at $73.81 a barrel on Friday, up $2.16 or about 3% over the past week. The Brent contract for March settled at $78.76 a barrel, gaining $1.72 or 2.23% during the same period.

Traders have grown more concerned about mounting tensions in the Middle East after largely dismissing geopolitical since the Israel-Hamas war began.

Houthi militant attacks on vessels in the Red Sea have forced Maersk to stop shipping through the key waterway for the foreseeable future. The U.S. has threatened the militants, who are based in Yemen and allied with Iran, with consequence to no avail so far.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is travelling in the region for the next week in an effort to prevent conflict from spreading.

A wider war that involves in Iran could lead to a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which would pose a major threat to oil flows, according to analysts.

— Spencer Kimball

The December jobs report has pushed down the odds that the Federal Reserve will ease interest rate policy as early as March, according to the CME FedWatch tool that uses the actions of traders to analyze the probability of changes to U.S. monetary policy.

Odds of a quarter-point cut in the fed funds rate to 5.00-5.25% from the current 5.25-5.50% dropped to 53.6%, down from 62.3% Thursday and 73.4% one week ago, as implied by 30-day futures pricing data. Conversely, chances that rates will stay where they are in March climbed to 43.9% Friday from just 11.5% a week ago.

The Street now pencils in 46.3% odds that rates will move down a quarter point at the Fed’s meeting in May, up from 11.3% a week ago, while the chance that rates will have come down a full half point by the end of the May meeting have dropped to 40.9% today from 71.9% last Friday.

— Scott Schnipper

The U.S. economy added many more jobs than anticipated in December, with nonfarm payrolls growing by 216,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a gain of 170,000 for last month.

The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%.

— Jeff Cox