China cut its 2026 goal for GDP growth to a rate of 4.5% to 5% under a new annual outlook report released today, according to Bloomberg — setting Beijing’s lowest target since 1991, but remaining in line with analyst expectations.
The yuan remained little changed against the dollar in the minutes after the plans details were reported publicly.
At an annual meeting of China’s National People’s Congress today, Premier Li Qiang is slated to present the country’s “Annual Government Work Report,” a series of policy goals that are filtered down to be applied at the province level.
Looking at other headline figures reported by Bloomberg from the annual work report, Beijing is targeting alongside the new GDP growth rate:
The lowered GDP growth target in this year’s annual work report reflects Beijing’s awareness that in China, the country’s growth model — long driven by property development, infrastructure investment, and export manufacturing — is under significant strain.
“The problems of imbalanced and inadequate development remain conspicuous; effective demand is insufficient, and bottlenecks persist in domestic circulation,” party leadership wrote in a February release summarizing the core ideas of the annual work report.
“Employment and income growth are under considerable pressure, and there are shortcomings and weaknesses in assuring people’s livelihoods; demographic shifts pose new problems for economic development and social governance; and risks and hidden dangers remain in key fields.”
Alongside the annual work report, China is also expected to unveil its 15th five-year plan, a major report dictating high-level strategy for the nation, over the next week of the National People’s Congress assembly in what comes as a highly anticipated release.
Over the past few months, consensus had been building that China will almost certainly attempt to accelerate what has been a years-long attempt to turn toward a focus on domestic growth, especially as the Trump administration’s tariff regime has made Beijing’s steady and significant export revenue less certain.
Beijing is also expected to signal in its five-year a plan its intention to double down in its competition with the US over global tech supremacy.
“Unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise, threats from hegemonism and power politics are growing, the international economic and trade order is encountering severe challenges, and the global economy has insufficient growth momentum,” the annual report preview says.
“The game being played between the great powers has also become more complex and intense.”
