Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq jump to kick off February as gold, silver, bitcoin remain volatile

Several stocks saw an immediate bump on Monday after President Trump announced the US had reached a trade deal with India that would lower tariffs between the two countries.

Infosys (INFY), a digital and IT services company headquartered in Bengaluru, India, jumped 4% with the stock’s biggest spike occurring at noon, when Trump shared the deal announcement.

Jewelers Signet (SIG) and Brilliant Earth (BRLT), which rely on India’s diamond cutting and polishing industry for many of their products, rose 1.5% and 0.6%, respectively.

In the furniture industry, Williams-Sonoma (WSM) rose by more than 4% following the news. The company sources 16% of its merchandise for its brands, such as West Elm and Pottery Barn, from India, which is its third-largest supplier.

The trade deal announced Monday would lower the US’s tariff rate on Indian goods to 18% from around 50%. Williams-Sonoma previously said that a reduced US tariff on Indian imports would be a boon to the business.

“As we look forward to the future, predictability in the tariff environment and a reduction in the India tariff would certainly be a positive for us,” Williams-Sonoma CEO Laura Alber said on the company’s previous earnings call.

Yahoo Finance’s Ben Werschkul reports:

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Yahoo Finance’s Ines Ferré reports:

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US stocks pushed higher after President Trump said the US and India agreed to a trade deal in a post on Truth Social.

As part of the deal, the US will drop the baseline tariff rate on imports from India to 18% from 25% previously. In turn, India will stop buying Russian oil and “move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States, to ZERO,” Trump posted.

The deal arrived after Trump spoke with India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi.

Just last week, India secured a trade deal with the European Union — called the “mother of all deals.” The strengthening of EU ties with India was seen as a rebuke of the United States, as the economic bloc has sought to diversify its trading partners.

Yahoo Finance’s Pras Subramanian reports:

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Two major retailers are entering a new era after their new CEOs took over at the same time.

At Walmart (WMT), the US’s largest private-sector employer, John Furner stepped into the CEO role following Doug McMillon’s retirement on Jan. 31 after more than a decade helming the company. Furner is a longtime Walmart employee who started as an hourly associate in 1993 and served in various roles in the Sam’s Club division before taking over US operations.

Meanwhile, at Target (TGT), former COO Michael Fiddelke succeeded Brian Cornell as CEO after Cornell stepped down after more than a decade running the company. Fiddelke faces a series of challenges at the beginning of his tenure, ranging from flagging sales to a crisis in Minneapolis near Target’s downtown headquarters.

While once considered close big box store rivals, the two retailers’ fortunes have diverged in recent years.

Target’s stock is down 42% over the past five years after seeing a major boost during the pandemic. Walmart’s stock is up more than 150% over the past five years as it has leaned into staples like grocery, e-commerce, and delivery.

Target’s market cap stands near $48 billion, while Walmart’s market cap of $970 billion is nearing the $1 trillion mark.

Activity in the US manufacturing sector grew for the first time in a year, signaling unexpected improvement and resilience as companies built up inventory.

The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) expanded to 52.6% in January, above estimates of 48.3% and last month’s reading of 47.9%. Another reading of PMI from S&P Global recorded 52.4 in January, up from 51.8 in the previous month.

Manufacturing PMI is considered a leading indicator for broader US economic activity. Readings above 50% indicate an expansion in activity, while readings below 50% signal contraction.

ISM’s New Orders Index grew for the first time since August, increasing 9.7 percentage points to 57.1% from December’s reading. The Production Index rose 5.2 percentage points to 55.9%, while the Prices Index also moderately climbed.

Tariffs and elevated prices (often linked by survey respondents to tariffs) remained key themes among purchasing managers, S&P Global’s Chris Williamson said. Although businesses are hopeful demand will pick up later this year and expectations have held up, political uncertainty has continued to drag on sentiment in the near term.

“Over the past three months, the survey indicates that factories have typically produced more goods than they have sold to a degree we have not previously seen since the global financial crisis back in early 2009,” Williamson said. “This highly unusual situation is clearly unsustainable, hinting at risks of a production slowdown and a potential knock-on effect on employment, unless demand improves markedly in the coming months.”

The US dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) continued to recover after Friday’s announcement that President Trump would nominate Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve chair.

The index, which measures the dollar against several currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound, rose 0.4% to 97.41 on Monday morning after the markets opened.

The dollar’s stabilization comes after the currency declined in the back half of January amid geopolitical concerns around Greenland. But some viewed the sell-off as potentially having gone too far, too fast.

“We’re certainly going to see bouts of dollar strength, especially if the Federal Reserve would have to go on to an extended pause or if inflation were to turn around later,” Madison Investments chief investment strategist Patrick Ryan told Yahoo Finance. “But right now, we’re positioning portfolios to take advantage of dollar weakness. … [The] dollar should be a tailwind for kind of investing overseas and looking for other kind of weak dollar dollar plays, and we’ve been taking advantage of that in our portfolios.”

A strong jobs report on Friday could provide additional support for the dollar’s stabilization.

Yahoo Finance’s Brooke DiPalma reports:

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Strategy (MSTR) and other crypto stocks sank on Monday morning in the wake of bitcoin’s recent rout, which has sent the price of the world’s largest cryptocurrency below $78,000.

Shares of Strategy, which pioneered the bitcoin treasury model, dropped more than 7% to $138 per share. Over the past year, the stock is down 55%.

Brokerages and exchanges tied up in the crypto ecosystem also fell. Robinhood (HOOD) declined by 3%, while Coinbase (COIN) shed 4%. Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital (MARA) slid 5%.

Ether (ETH-USD) and other digital tokens also declined as pressure on the crypto space grew following the announcement of President Trump’s Fed chair pick.

From Bloomberg:

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From Bloomberg:

Oil plunged as geopolitical risk premiums faded after US President Donald Trump said Washington is talking with Iran, while a broader commodities sell-off exacerbated the slide.

Brent (BZ=F) plummeted more than 5% at one point and was trading near $66 a barrel, while US crude futures (CL=F) also nosedived. Trump downplayed Iran supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s threats of a regional war over the weekend, reiterating he’s hopeful they’ll make a deal.

The Islamic Republic’s foreign ministry said it hopes diplomatic efforts will avert a war. The Tasnim news agency said talks between the US and Iran are likely in the coming days.

“The move lower looks more like a positioning reset than a fundamental shift,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital LP. “With no new supply shock, oil is giving back some risk premium as the market recalibrates after pricing in near-term disruption that just didn’t materialize.”

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