Here are 4 big things we’re watching in the stock market this week
Investors may catch their breath next week as earnings season winds down and only a few meaningful economic reports are released. The Iran war will remain front and center. Stock selling accelerated Friday into the close after Reuters reported that Iraq had declared force majeure on all oil fields operated by foreign companies. Oil prices spiked on the news, with Brent crude topping $112 a barrel and WTI oil trading over $98 a barrel. As we noted recently, oil is the lifeblood of the global economy. It’s a large, unavoidable input cost for Main Street and Wall Street, so when its price rises, the price of most things goes up. As a result, active investors should regularly monitor oil prices every minute the market is open; they dictate how Wall Street views market value because commodity prices move inversely to corporate earnings potential. 1. How is the jobs market? Investors are still trying to get a handle on that question, and will look to the weekly initial claims report on Thursday and the productivity and costs report on Tuesday. These aren’t the most important gauges of employment — the monthly nonfarm payroll report is king — but given how little data is coming out amid rising fears of stagnation, market watchers will pay more attention than usual. Expect more talk of stagnation — a prolonged period of slow or no economic growth, characterized by high unemployment and stagnant wages — given higher oil prices, rising concerns about the Middle East conflict, and corporate adoption of AI. Those fears are starting to make their way into the market. Look no further than the change in fed funds futures. One month ago, the odds of an April rate cut were 17%, while there was a 94% chance of at least one cut by the end of this year, and a 75% chance of more than one cut, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool , which calculates probabilities using 30-day fed funds futures contracts. Odds of an April cut are now at 10%, and there is a 73% chance of no cuts this year. 2. Consumer sentiment is crucial because spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of the U.S. economy. That makes the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, out Friday, especially important, since half of the data from the last one was collected before the war in Iran. This one will give a fuller reading on how the conflict is impacting sentiment. A handful of earnings — Winnebago , Designer Brands , and Carnival — should provide some more clues about spending. 3. S & P Global’s CERAWeek , from Monday through Friday, is one of the biggest events for the energy complex , bringing together government officials and industry experts with a focus on energy, the climate, and geopolitics. Two key topics will be the war in Iran and the surging demand for energy driven by AI data center infrastructure initiatives. 4. KB Home is the key earnings release of the week. As one of the largest home builders in the U.S., the company’s results should provide insight into the supply and demand dynamics of the housing market. It will be particularly interesting to hear what the team has to say about customer conversations in the wake of the war in Iran. It’s difficult to imagine housing activity improving as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and energy prices remain elevated. Week ahead Monday, March 23 10 a.m. ET: Construction Spending Tuesday, March 24 8:30 a.m. ET: Productivity and Unit Labor Costs report 9:45 a.m. ET: S & P Global Services and Manufacturing PMI reports Before the bell: Core & Main (CNM), Concentrix (CNXC), Smithfield Foods (SFD) After the bell: KB Home (KBH), GameStop (GME), AAR Corp (AIR) Wednesday, March 25 8:30 a.m. ET: Import/Export Price Index Before the bell: Chewy (CHWY), Pinduoduo (PDD), Baozun (BZUN), Cintas (CTAS), Paychex (PAYX), Winnebago (WGO) After the bell: Beyond Meat (BYND), Jefferies Financial (JEF), MillerKnoll (MLKN) Thursday, March 26 8:30 a.m. ET: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index 8:30 a.m. ET: Initial Jobless Claims Before the bell: Commercial Metals Company (CMC), Designer Brands (DBI) Friday, March 27 10 a.m. ET: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Before the bell: Carnival (CCL) (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
