Indian stock market: How’re Sensex and Nifty 50 likely to move this week amid ongoing Middle East tensions?

Indian stock market: The Indian stock market closed the week largely flat with a slight negative bias, indicating cautious sentiment among participants. While the first three sessions saw a positive trend, a sharp fall on Thursday wiped out the gains, followed by a volatile final session.

Market indices Nifty 50 slipped 0.16% to end at 23,114.50, while the Sensex edged down 0.04% to settle at 74,532.96.

“Indian equity markets witnessed a highly volatile yet stabilising week, with sentiment showing signs of short-term relief following last week’s sharp correction. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to remain elevated, some moderation in crude oil prices helped limit further downside, enabling indices to consolidate near key support zones. However, the week was largely marked by sharp intraday fluctuations, driven by ongoing geopolitical developments and continued volatility in crude oil prices,” Ponmudi R, CEO – Enrich Money said.

Stock market outlook for next week

On the stock market outlook for next week, Ponmudi said that the Indian markets are likely to remain highly volatile and event-driven, with near-term direction largely contingent on developments in the Middle East, particularly the evolving situation around the Strait of Hormuz.

He further noted that any prolonged disruption could keep crude prices elevated above the $100 mark, intensifying inflationary and current account pressures while sustaining a risk-off sentiment. FII flows, rupee movement, and global cues—including US dollar strength and broader market sentiment—will be key variables to monitor.

“Any signs of de-escalation or easing in crude prices could trigger short-covering or relief rallies, while renewed escalation may lead to further downside pressure,” he said.

Market trading strategy for next week

Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking, suggested that investors maintain a cautious and selective approach, given the fragile sentiment, persistent FII outflows, and ongoing global uncertainties.

“Traders should remain nimble, avoid aggressive leverage, and adhere to disciplined risk management practices. With volatility expected to remain high, maintaining a hedged approach with a focus on stock selection will be key until clearer directional cues emerge,” Mishra said.

Meanwhile, on the sectoral outlook, Mishra noted that pharma and select energy stocks may continue to attract interest, while metals could benefit from cyclical support. However, caution is advised in rate-sensitive and oil-linked sectors given elevated crude prices, he added.

Key technical levels to watch for in the coming week –

Sensex

On the outlook of Sensex, Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, said that the index reflects a range-bound yet cautious structure, closing at 74,532.

Hariprasad further noted that the 74,000 level continues to act as a key psychological and structural support, aligned with previous demand zones. Below this, 73,600 emerges as the next support.

“On the upside, 75,500 remains an immediate resistance, while 77,000 continues to act as a major supply zone. The inability to sustain above these resistance levels reinforces the ongoing consolidation with a negative bias,” he said.

Nifty 50

Meanwhile, on the Nifty 50 outlook, Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst at Choice Broking, said that the index has declined nearly 13% from its all-time high, underscoring a significant corrective phase in the broader market. From a momentum standpoint, the weekly RSI stands at 30.22, reflecting near-oversold conditions and weak underlying momentum.

“From a technical level perspective, 23,850 remains the immediate resistance, followed by 24,000 and 24,150. On the downside, 22,950 and 22,700 serve as crucial support levels, with a break below 22,700 potentially triggering accelerated downside movement. Traders are advised to stay cautious and adhere to strict risk management practices amid the prevailing volatility,” Tailor said.

Bank Nifty

The index has now corrected nearly 13.5% from its all-time high, indicating that the market is undergoing a deeper corrective phase.

According to Tailor, downside targets are seen in the 53,000–52,000 zone, with the possibility of further decline if selling pressure intensifies, in the near term. On the upside, 54,000 acts as the immediate resistance, while 54,500 and 55,000 represent the next key supply zones.

“From a momentum standpoint, the weekly RSI at 33.82 indicates weak momentum and a move toward the oversold region. A sustained close above 54,000 could signal strengthening bullish momentum and potentially trigger a recovery. However, failure to reclaim this level may keep the index under short-term corrective pressure. Traders should remain cautious and disciplined while monitoring key levels for the next directional move,” Tailor added.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.