Stock Market

Is the Stock Market Overheating? How to Position Your Portfolio for What Comes Next


  • Investors should not panic and go to cash because stocks are at all-time highs.

  • At the same time, do not use leverage to put your portfolio on margin.

  • Remember to always consider valuation when investing.

  • 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index ›

The U.S. stock market has been highly resilient in the face of macroeconomic and tariff uncertainty in the last few years. Since the beginning of 2023, the S&P 500 index (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has posted close to a 70% total return, marking one of the best two-and-a-half-year periods in stock market history.

Does that mean the market is overheating? The S&P 500 average price-to-earnings multiple is inching back close to all-time highs, putting large expectations on future growth for its underlying companies. As an investor, it can pay to have a level head and act rationally when the stock market is going on a roller-coaster ride (in either direction).

Here are three things not to do with stocks at all-time highs to help you position your portfolio and succeed over the long term.

A famous investing adage is, “you don’t go broke taking a profit.” While that is technically true, cutting short your returns on huge winning stocks can severely hamper your long-term returns, while also adding a large tax hit that is underappreciated by many stock investors. The huge winning returns in the market come from holding high-quality businesses such as Amazon, Netflix, or Nvidia for decades. If you bought and then sold them only after a double, you would be missing out on 100-fold returns.

In other words, don’t take your portfolio entirely to cash just because stocks are back at all-time highs. When looking at historical data, there is barely a difference between forward returns over one-, three-, and five-year periods when you buy the stock market at all-time highs compared to any other period.

This is a quantitative example of why investors should not try to time the market. It is close to impossible, doesn’t truly impact your long-term returns, adds new tax implications, and is much more stressful than buy-and-hold investing.  That’s not a winning formula for stock investing. Stay patient and let your winning stocks keep riding to new heights.

A person looking up and thinking with a lightbulb graphic in the background.
Image source: Getty Images.

Rising stocks can give you confidence. Sometimes, this can lead to irrational exuberance, and it is important to keep a level head even if you feel like a stock market genius right now.

One thing to not do — and perhaps the most important lesson all investors should take from reading this article — is to avoid going on margin to buy more stocks. Trading on margin means getting a loan from your brokerage to buy more stocks. For example, you may have $100,00 in cash deposited in your account but take on $50,000 in loans to buy more from your brokerage. Margin debt for investors has hit a record high in 2025.



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