CHONGQING, CHINA – MARCH 3: In this photo illustration, the BigBear.ai logo is displayed on a smartphone screen, with financial charts and stock market performance visible in the background, highlighting the company’s role in artificial intelligence, data analytics, and its impact on market trends, on March 3, 2025, in Chongqing, China. (Photo by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)
Getty Images
BigBear.ai stock (NYSE: BBAI) has seen a notable rally, rising 28% in the past month and delivering gains of over 45% year-to-date. This momentum has been driven by the company’s strong foothold in the expanding defense AI sector, where it provides critical AI-powered solutions. The rally has been further boosted by heightened retail investor enthusiasm and recent contract announcements, including a collaboration with the U.S. Navy and the launch of a biometric system at Nashville Airport.
The key question now is whether the stock is attractive at its current price of about $6: Is BBAI a buy or a sell? While there may be upside potential for BigBear.ai, we believe several major concerns make BBAI stock highly unattractive at its present valuation. This conclusion is based on a comparison of BBAI’s current valuation against its recent operating results and historical financials. Our assessment across Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience shows that BigBear.ai demonstrates Weak overall operating performance and a concerning financial condition, as detailed below.
That said, if you want upside potential with lower volatility than holding a single stock like BBAI, consider the High Quality Portfolio. This portfolio has consistently outperformed its benchmark—a blend of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—delivering returns of more than 91% since inception. Why? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks generated higher returns with less risk compared to the benchmark, offering a smoother ride, as reflected in HQ Portfolio performance metrics. Separately, see – The GOOGL Stock Shareholder Jackpot
How Does BigBear.ai’s Valuation Compare to the S&P 500?
By the metrics of price-to-sales or profit multiples, BBAI stock appears very expensive relative to the broader market.
How Has BigBear.ai’s Revenue Trended in Recent Years?
BigBear.ai’s revenues have weakened over the past few years.
- The company’s revenue has grown at an average of 1.4% annually over the last three years (vs. 5.3% for the S&P 500)
- Its revenue increased 3.5% from $147 Mil to $153 Mil over the past 12 months (vs. 5.1% growth for the S&P 500)
- However, quarterly revenues declined 18.4% to $32 Mil in the latest quarter, down from $40 Mil a year earlier (vs. a 6.1% rise for the S&P 500)
How Profitable Is BigBear.ai?
BigBear.ai’s profitability metrics lag significantly behind most companies under Trefis coverage.
Does BigBear.ai Look Financially Stable?
BigBear.ai’s balance sheet appears very strong.
- BigBear.ai’s debt was $113 Mil in the most recent quarter, compared to a $2.1 Bil market cap (as of 9/29/2025). This implies a very strong Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 5.5% (vs. 20.7% for the S&P 500). [Note: Lower ratios are preferable]
- Cash (and equivalents) of $391 Mil out of $599 Mil in total assets gives a very strong Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 65.2% (vs. 7.0% for the S&P 500)
How Resilient Is BBAI Stock in Downturns?
BBAI stock has performed much worse than the S&P 500 during past downturns. With investors hoping for a soft landing in the U.S. economy, what could happen in a recession? Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash examines performance during and after seven major market crashes.
Inflation Shock (2022)
- BBAI stock plunged 95.0% from $12.69 on April 13, 2022, to $0.63 on December 29, 2022, vs. a 25.4% drop for the S&P 500
- The stock has yet to recover to its pre-crisis highs
- The peak since then was $9.78 on February 13, 2025, with the stock now at roughly $6.50
- Also, see – More Downside For BigBear.ai?
Putting It All Together: What This Means for BBAI Stock
To summarize, BigBear.ai’s performance across key metrics is as follows:
- Growth: Inconsistent
- Profitability: Very Weak
- Financial Stability: Very Strong
- Downturn Resilience: Very Weak
- Overall: Weak
While BBAI scores weakly across most factors, investors may want to explore the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap benchmark (a mix of S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices). Why?This quarterly rebalanced blend of large-, mid-, and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks offered strong performance in bull markets while limiting losses in downturns, as seen in RV Portfolio performance metrics.
The Bottom Line
Given BigBear.ai’s weak performance across core financial and operating measures, combined with its steep valuation, we find the stock unattractive and a poor investment at this stage.
Although it’s possible the market continues assigning a premium to BBAI given AI’s rising demand, this represents a significant risk. Considering the company’s track record of underperformance in downturns and current elevated valuation, investors would likely be better off waiting for a meaningful price pullback before entering a position.
