
US stocks fell on Tuesday as a milder inflation reading supported bets that the Fed would stick to expectations for interest rate cuts, while JPMorgan (JPM) results kicked off the fourth quarter earnings season.
The blue chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.8%, while the S&P 500 lost about 0.3%. Moving the other direction, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) picked dropped 0.3%.
JPMorgan Chase led out this week’s rush of big bank results, posting a quarterly earnings miss amid a $2.2 billion hit to net income from a Apple Card deal. Shares in America’s biggest bank were down roughly 3.5%. With earnings season now unofficially underway, Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), and Morgan Stanley (MS) will follow with their own results in coming days.
Meanwhile, Tuesday morning’s CPI report, a key factor in the Fed’s rate-setting decisions, showed that inflation remained steady last month. The annual headline rate came in at 2.7%, with a monthly increase of 0.3%, both in line with forecasts. “Core” consumer prices came in below forecasts at 0.2% over last month and 2.6% over last year, marking the lowest annual rise since early 2021.
The data takes on added importance after the December jobs report pointed to a cooling labor market. Traders have firmed up bets on the Fed holding steady this month, but odds have slightly shifted for a cut in the months after, per the CME FedWatch Tool.
Meanwhile, global central bankers have joined the likes of Janet Yellen and Alan Greenspan in rushing to condemn the Justice Department’s investigation of Chair Jerome Powell, seen as a threat to the Fed’s autonomy. Powell, whose term as Fed chair expires in May, characterized the probe as political pressure from President Trump, who has repeatedly called for aggressive interest-rate cuts.
On another front, Trump said late Monday that countries that continue to do business with Iran will face a 25% US tariff. The vow adds another layer of geopolitical uncertainty to a market already grappling with moves on Venezuela and Greenland, and could threaten the US trade truce with China.
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