Stock Market Highlights 9 January 2026: Sensex, Nifty fall for fifth straight day as US tariff threat looms
Jefferies on Industrials
Published news articles suggest that India could lift restrictions on Chinese companies for bidding on government contracts that were put in place since 2020
Defence should see lowest impact, followed by Cummins
L&T, Afcons and BHEL are likely to see highest impact, followed by ABB and CG Power
T&D (Siemens Energy, Hitachi Energy) could see limited impact, given national security priority towards transmission grid
Bernstein on Industrials
News articles suggest that India could lift restrictions on Chinese companies for bidding on government contracts
We will be surprised if the Indian govt. completely removes the Rule 144 without any constraints.
However, our industry checks also suggest that relaxation of some form is likely.
It could be segment based or come with certain requirements on part of Chinese firms before they participate
The push could have been coming not just from Ministry of Power but also from some others (e.g. Ministry of Steel).
To summarize we think if this plays out, then equipment players (especially multinational players) are the ones to be more impacted and not construction heavy companies
In case of L&T while it would be negative but only to a small extent
Who gains: The beneficiaries would be the asset owners- state owned companies- i.e. Power Grid, NTPC etc.
Whose project would get expedited and get done at lower costs (e.g. Power Grids competitively won projects).
UBS on BHEL
Buy, TP Rs 375
BHEL win Rs54bn Coal Gasification & Raw Syngas Cleaning Plant order; reaching 60% of FY26 orders
BCGCL (JV of CIL & BHEL) awards order for Coal-to-Ammonium Nitrate.
Marking first commercial use of BHEL’s proprietary PFBG tech, moving from R&D to execution. 42-month execution, 60-month O&M.
Positive read-through post recent correction
CLSA on NHPC
High Conviction O-P, TP Rs 117
believe 2026 should transform NHPC’s size of its capacity +64% YoY and visibility of 90% EPS growth over FY25-27CL while solidifying its decadal growth story
Three key catalysts are
1) final tariff of its Parbati 2 project (25% of regulated equity),
2) full commissioning of its second largest project – Subansiri lower hydro project (SL HEP) by 4Q 2026
3) award of four hydro projects and one pump storage in 2026, improving visibility of growth until FY35.
GS on RIL
Buy, TP Rs 1835
expect moderation in 3Q earnings growth in retail due to weak discretionary spend, base effects and festive timing, but this is likely to be partly offset by a strong refining-led performance in energy
Have trimmed near-term retail growth assumptions and raised refining estimates, resulting in largely unchanged overall earnings.
Refining fundamentals remain supported by tight product markets through CY27, while crude differentials across alternative grades (including Middle Easters barrels) are improving, which could help sustain strong refining margins
See further upside risks to RIL’s refining margins in a scenario of a revival in crude sourcing from Venezuela
Meanwhile, in telecom, we are expecting 18% EBITDA CAGR over FY26-30E
GS on Zomato
Buy, TP cut to Rs 375 from Rs 390
Recent stock correction (-17% in last 3m vs. Sensex’s +3%) in our view is a function of two investor concerns
(1) Expectation of a near-term slowdown in quick commerce growth, and implications of this for its medium-term outlook;
(2) the persistent narrative of elevated competition and what that could imply for Blinkit’s margins
Disagree with extent of bearishness being priced into Zomato’s stock
Macquarie on Hospitals
Apollo and Max stocks have each lagged NIFTY50 performance by 14% in 2025. We expect more consensus earnings downgrades to weigh on stocks in 2026.
Eight listed hospital chains have guided to add 6,000+ beds before end of FY27, the largest annual capacity expansion in the last eight years.
We believe EBITDA drag from new hospitals is not reflected in current consensus estimates. Reiterate Underperform calls on Apollo and Max
JPM on IDFC First BK
OW, TP Rs 104
The much-awaited savings rate cut in higher balance buckets is likely aimed at aligning the bank’s savings account rates with industry-wide revisions, especially by larger banks and policy rate transmission for better margin preservation
Overall, estimate this calibration to have a potential benefit of 7-8 bps on deposit costs, assuming contribution from SA does not decline following calibration
See this as a positive as savings rate calibration for IDFCFB is happening much earlier vs our forecast & is likely to improve visibility on bank’s progression towards 1% RoA
Estimate RoA for IDFCFB to rise by 54 bps over FY26-28, supported by declining credit costs and improving operating leverage
View, mid-tier banks are well positioned to deliver alpha, driven by accelerating loan growth and an improving asset quality outlook, with IDFCFB and AUSFB being preferred picks
Investec on IDFC First BK
Buy, TP Rs 98
Announced rejigs in its savings deposit rates and slabs, effectively bringing down rates offered in higher ticket sized buckets
rough calculations from rejigs announced suggest a 15-20bp blended reduction in cost of SA, translating into a 7-8bp immediate reduction in funding cost (5bp positive RoA impact, all else being the same)
Despite rate rejig, IDFCFB continues to offer most competitive rates on savings deposits & hence impact on SA growth ahead should be minimal
believe substantial headroom exists for IDFCFB to moderate SA rates further, supporting RoA.
IDFC has multiple levers, including a largely fixed rate book (60% of loans), moderation in credit costs, operating leverage and SA rate cuts to deliver 62% PAT CAGR over FY25-28E and 1.2% FY28 RoA.
JPM on Petronet LNG
Upgrade to OW, TP raised to Rs 335
PLNG’s earnings momentum should improve on
a) better volumes, helped by the 5MTPA Dahej expansion in March,
b) the 5% tariff escalation,
c) lower impairment costs.
The latter should also help drive upgrades to consensus FY28 forecasts
The potential renegotiation of Dahej tariffs and the risk from large PDH capex are key valuation issues, but these are likely to remain unresolved for some time.
Better earnings should help the stock in the interim.
MOSL on M&M
Maintain Buy with target price of ₹4521
Healthy launch pipeline to help sustain momentum 1000
XUV7XO is a much better value proposition to customers
Co plans to launch two more ICE variants in FY27, alongside an EV in the same fiscal
Healthy launch pipeline is expected to help sustain healthy demand momentum going forward
Expect MM to deliver a 14% volume CAGR over FY25-28E.
Estimate MM to post a CAGR of ~19%/18%/21% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY25-28E
MOSL on APL Apollo Tubes
Maintain Buy with target price of 2260 vs 2100
Despite persistent softness in the industry, co registered 11% YoY volume growth in 9MFY26 and maintains FY26 volume growth guidance of 10-15%
Co has also implemented a new strategy recently to penetrate the market further and gain market share from secondary/unorganised players
Consistently adding capacity to stay ahead of its peers
New-age applications align with the ambitions of SAPAT and India
Expect APAT to report a CAGR of 14%/29%/33% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY25-28
We value the stock at 35x FY27E EPS
JPMorgan on Vishal Mega Mart
Recommendation Overweight; Target Price ₹158
Steady store addition pace; prioritizing expansion in new catchments
Store additions skewed more towards South and West; expansion in new cities a key focus area
Incremental cannibalization risk on SSSG is likely to be lower
UBS on NBFCs
November asset quality improved after weak October
Small-ticket MSME loan asset quality remains weak but stable
CV loans improving following seasonal asset quality weakness
Top picks are Shriram, Chola and PNB Housing Finance
InCred View on 500% Duty Bill
Trump – the 500% duty bill won’t pass
Keep your chin up and BUY
The White House may seem like the Wolf’s Lair, but US checks and balances are much stronger than Hitler’s Germany
US legislative process is deliberately complex, designed to balance speed with institutional checks
Bill must pass multiple stages: introduction, committee review, floor debate, and approval by both chambers, with presidential assent required at the end
Simple bills need a simple majority, but controversial legislation can trigger a filibuster requiring 60 votes for passage
Bill faces structural and political obstacles: the Senate filibuster, potential inflationary backlash, intense corporate lobbying, and practical implementation gaps, particularly for services
Legislation is highly unlikely to pass, and the near-term market reaction largely reflects “shock value” rather than enforceable policy risk
From a historical and macro perspective, Trump-related fears are temporary
Morgan Stanley on Leela Palaces
Maintain overweight with target price of ₹573 vs ₹562
Expect Leela to outperform the hotel industry in 3QFY26 on RevPAR growth
Supported by luxury positioning and asset management initiatives
Attractive valuation with potential upside from Dubai and BKC JVs
Remains preferred play in the hotels segment
Raise EPS estimates by 3–10% over FY26–28 as we build in stronger RevPAR trends
Cut our target multiple to 22x from 25x owing to de-rating of peers
JPMorgan on Indian Hotels
Maintains ‘Overweight’ with Price Target of Rs 805 (Earlier target: ₹890)
Cut FY26–28 forecasts by 1–3% ahead of Q3FY26 earnings
Overweight on favorable cycle, size-scale benefits, continued fast-tracking of business targets, and strong leverage and cash position
InCred on Transformers and Rectifiers
Maintains ‘Reduce’ with Price Target of Rs 200 (Earlier target: ₹300)
Don’t catch a falling knife
Order intake in 9MFY26 fell by 19% YoY
Order backlog has been flattish for the past three quarters
CEO’s resignation is a negative surprise
