Stock Market Live Updates July 30, 2024: Sensex, Nifty marginally lower at open; Sensex slips 38 points to 81,317

Jefferies On HPCL

Underperform Call, Target Rs 315

Q1 Showed Weak Set Of Numbers With EBITDA Down 56% QoQ But Was 21% Ahead Of Est

EBITDA Came Higher Than Est On Higher Marketing Inventory Gains While Refining Was Weaker

Co Remains Vulnerable With No Change To Retail Prices Post Elections

Refining Margin Should Remain Rangebound, Keeping Integrated Margin Under Pressure

Keep FY25/26 Estimates Largely Unchanged; Risk-reward Is Unfavorable After Steep Rally

Citi on HPCL

Buy Call, Target Rs 420

Q1 EBITDA Came Well Below Estimate

GRM Was Expectedly Down QoQ From $7/bbl To $5/bbl, Slightly Ahead Of Our $4.5/bbl Est)

Miss Was Primarily On Account Of An LPG Under Recovery Of Rs 250 Cr

Net Income At Rs 360 Cr (Down 87% QoQ) Was Therefore, Well Below Rs 890 Cr Est

Govt Has Not Announced Any Budgetary Compensation For LPG

Compensation For LPG Could Possibly Be Announced Later In Year

Compensation For LPG Will Help OMCs Reverse These Under-Recoveries

UBS on HPCL

Buy, TP Rs 445

LPG under-recovery & low distillate yield impact Q1 earnings

Strong physical performance; earnings above UBSe

GRM at $5/bbl(in-line) as distillate yield lags

Earnings impacted by Rs25bn of LPG under-recoveries for qtr

JPM on HPCL

Neutral, TP Rs 335

Weak 1Q PAT, 73% below JPMe

Moderate miss on Gross Profits translated to sharp bottom line miss due to co’s higher-than-peers P&L leverage

Higher operating leverage can help earnings surprise if Oil prices fall &retail prices remain stagnant

Jefferies on BEL

Buy, Target Raised To Rs 370

Q1 EBITDA Was 33% Above Expectations As Both Margin & Revenue Surprised

Co Is Market Leader In Domestic Defense Electronics

Co Benefits From Spend Across The Army, Navy And Air Force

Management Remains Upbeat On Order Flow Outlook

Non-defence Progress Remains Muted

FY24-FY27 Should See Double-digit Revenue Growth Based On Order Book And Pipeline

Jefferies on NTPC

Buy Call, Target Raised To Rs 485

Q1FY25 Profit Was 11% Above Expectations

Fixed Cost Under Recovery Was `200 Cr Vs `100 Cr YoY, Impact Was Offset By Higher Coal/Gas PLFs

Q1 Capacity Addition Was Muted At 90 MW

Management Guides For 23 GW Addition Over FY25E-27 Led By Renewables

Renewable Energy Capacity Ramp-Up Remain Re-Rating Drivers

Pilot Initiatives On Green Hydrogen Remain Re-Rating Drivers

CLSA on NTPC

O-P, TP Rs 441

1Q rec. PAT up 23% YoY(5% ahead of est.)

on 13% regulated equity growth & favourable regulations FY24-29

Core execution robust but renewable disappointed

Co claimed it had pipeline of 26GW of regulated projects & 24GW in non-fossil projects

HSBC on NTPC

Hold, TP Rs 355

NTPC’s analyst meeting was all about thermal; management did not comment on renewable plan, citing upcoming IPO

Intends to order out 15GW over next two fiscal years, install 60GW by 2032, & progress nuclear capacity

BOFA Sec on NTPC

U-P, TP Rs 271

Earnings in line; capacity additions guidance upgrade; see delays

Thermal ordering guidance maintained: 15.2GW by FY27

Execution a risk, valns rich despite optimistic assumptions

MS on ACC

Equal-Weight Call, Target Rs 2,930

Q1 Key Takeaways Include Volumes (Cement + Clinker) Which Were Up 9% YoY

Q1 Volumes Were Much Higher Than Estimate Of 4% YoY

Realisations Were Weaker, Moderating 3.1% QoQ Vs Forecast Of 1.5% Sequential Moderation

Fuel Costs Did Better Than Expected

Better Fuel Costs Benefits Were Broadly Offset By Higher Raw Materials & ‘Other’ Costs

Jefferies on ACC

Buy Call, Target Rs 3,045

Q1 Earnings Data Showed EBITDA In-line

1Q Volumes Grew 9% YoY, Which Were A Beat

Realisation Was Lower 3% QoQ Vs Estimate Of 2-2.5% QoQ Dip

PAT At Rs 360 Cr Vs Est Of `380 Cr Was Lower 22% YoY On Higher Depreciation

Cash Position Dipped Due To Opportunistic Buying Of Input Material (RM, Fuel) & Capex Purposes

Nomura on ACC

Reduce, TP Rs 2200

1Q: Strong vol growth delivers marginal beat on EBITDA

Vols grew 9% y-y to 10.2MT & beat est. by 5%

Expect higher share of MSA (master supply agreement) volumes, resulting in such high vol 

Blended EBITDA/t of Rs 664/t in lin

CLSA on ACC

Hold, TP Rs 2730

1Q Ebitda of Rs6.8bn (-12% YoY) largely in line as higher volumes offset weak profitability.

Volumes grew 9% YoY to 10.2mt 

Realisations fell 3% QoQ – in line with estimates

Nomura on Colgate

Sell Call, Target Rs 2,800

Q1 Was All-round Beat; Volume Growth Of 6-7% Vs Est. Of 2%

Strong GPM/OPM Expansion Continues Driving 22% EBITDA Growth

Increase FY25/26/27 EPS By 4.0%/2.8%/1.6% To Factor In Q1 Beat

Believe Risk-reward Is Unfavourable Given It Is Entering A Moderate EPS Growth Phase

Jefferies on Colgate

Buy Call, Target Raised To Rs 3,570

Co Delivered An Impressive Growth In Revenues Led By Confluence Of Macro Factors

Co Saw Pick Up In Rural Along With Strong Execution

Higher Than Expected Gross Margins Along With Operating Leverage Benefits Helped

Co Reported Earnings Well Ahead Of Estimates

Beat Q1 Result Drove Us To Upgrade Earning Estimates For 3rd Quarter In A Row

CLSA on Colgate

Upgrade to hold, TP Raised to Rs 3157

1Q sales 3% above est & Ebitda 2% above est

Toothpaste volume growth of high single digits was above estimate of c.6%.

Rural grew faster than urban for 2nd qtr in a row

HSBC on Colgate

Hold, TP Rs 3000

Stock’s impressive run-up likely a result of revenue growth, margin reset & rise of market defensiveness

Q1 results stand out by a wide margin; high-single-digit vol growth with significant beat on revenue & profits

Vals rich; see ltd upside

BoFA on Colgate

U-P, TP Rs 3175

1Q ahead of expectations

Margin trajectory could normalize

Medium-term upside potential priced in

1Q performance was strong even last year, but then growth rates normalized thereafter