An Hour Ago
Consumer spending will get a boost from the five-month-long stock market rally, Capital Economics says
Consumer spending in the U.S. is likely to see at least a modest bump as a result of a resurgence in household wealth thanks to the stock market rally and higher house prices, according to London-based Capital Economics.
“The continued surge in the stock market that we forecast is likely to drive household net wealth to a record high as a share of incomes and provide a tailwind to consumption growth,” Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist wrote Thursday.
American household stock holdings jumped $7 trillion in the first quarter, while total household net wealth climbed $8.5 trillion, including the value of homes, Hunter said. The research firm sees household wealth advancing an additional $20 trillion by the end of 2025, “as an AI-fueled bubble inflates” and house prices gain another 6% by the end of next year.
Any added spending resulting from households feeling more wealthy is likely to bolster consumer spending rather than lead to a big upswing, the firm said. “We suspect rising household wealth is likely to underpin a gradual acceleration in consumption growth in 2025-26 rather than driving a sudden boom,” wrote Hunter.
— Scott Schnipper
An Hour Ago
Here’s what investors should look for in Friday’s big jobs report
Expect a strong March jobs report as the Labor Department rolls out its payrolls data on Friday morning.
Economists polled by Dow Jones expect that employers added 200,000 jobs last month, which would indicate a slowdown from February’s addition of 275,000.
While job gains are a key area of focus for Wall Street, traders will be looking through the Labor Department’s report for revisions to previous payrolls reports. In its February results, the federal agency announced sharp downward revisions to December and January’s payroll data.
Investors – and the Federal Reserve – will also have an eye on wage growth. Economists anticipate average hourly earnings gained 0.3% in March. That would be an increase from February’s 0.1% jump.
Read more from CNBC’s Jeff Cox on the details in the upcoming jobs report.
–Darla Mercado
An Hour Ago
Investor bullishness stays above average for 22nd week in latest AAII poll
Investor optimism over the outlook dipped in the latest weekly poll from the American Association of Indivodual Investors, while still remaining above its historical average for a 22nd consecutive week, coinciding with the start of the current bull market.
Bullishness fell to 47.3% from 50.0% last week, against an historical average of 37.5%.
Bearishness about the outlook for stock prices stayed below its historical average for a 22nd week, easing to 22.24% from 22.4% last week versus an historical average of 31%. Neutral sentiment climbed to 30.5% from 27.6%, the eighth time in 10 weeks it was below its historical average of 31.5%.
Sentiment indicators are used as a contrarian signal. When bullish readings get too extreme, it’s regarded as a sign that optimists have finished most of their buying and little money remains on the sidelines to come into the market. Conversely, extreme bearish readings can signal that most selling is done and plenty of cash is on the sidelines ready to buy stocks.
— Scott Schnipper
An Hour Ago
Stocks head for losing week
With just Friday’s session left in the trading week, the three major indexes are on track for notable drops.
The Dow has lost about 3% so far, putting it on pace for its worst week since March 2023. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have each slipped around 2%.
— Alex Harring
2 Hours Ago
Dow futures little changed
Dow futures traded slightly above flat shortly after 6 p.m. ET. Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 each added around 0.1%.
— Alex Harring
