AMD Stock performance highlights investor fears of overvaluation
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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has seen its share of sharp pullbacks before — the stock has dropped more than 30% in under two months on 14 separate occasions in recent years, erasing billions in market value and vaporizing hard-won gains in a matter of weeks. History shows that AMD is far from immune to abrupt declines, raising a pressing question: how could the stock crash again from here?
The stock has experienced growth over the past year, driven by increasing demand for its AI accelerators and strong data center expansion; however, its rise is encountering tangible obstacles. Geopolitical tensions resulting in export restrictions continue to hinder crucial revenue streams, while intense competition from NVIDIA and the natural volatility of semiconductor supply chains could rapidly diminish market confidence, suggesting potential weakness in this strong upward trend.
What Could Cause The Stock To Plummet?
- AI Competition: Nvidia’s dominance in ecosystem (CUDA) and the introduction of the Blackwell series, along with the rise of custom AI ASICs from hyperscalers like Google (TPU), could restrict AMD’s market share growth for the Instinct MI300X/MI350 despite its cost-effectiveness and recent export approval to China.
- CPU Market Pressure: Intel’s assertive 2025 roadmap featuring Arrow Lake/Lunar Lake for client and server CPUs, as well as ARM aiming for a 50% market share in data center CPUs by the end of 2025 through AWS Graviton and custom chips, poses a threat to AMD’s EPYC and Ryzen expansion.
- Macro-Geopolitical Issues: A deteriorating global economic forecast for 2025 and ongoing U.S.-China technology restrictions, even with the recent approvals for MI308, could undermine overall semiconductor demand and induce supply chain turbulence.
What’s The Worst-Case Scenario?
When considering AMD’s vulnerabilities in challenging markets, the statistics reveal the situation. The stock fell more than 83% during the Dot-Com crash and nearly 92% during the Global Financial Crisis. Even the inflation spike in 2022 significantly impacted it, resulting in a decline of around 65%. Smaller selloffs such as in 2018 and during the Covid crisis still resulted in decreases of about 49% and 34%, respectively. Thus, despite the positive aspects surrounding AMD, major market downturns have taken a considerable toll.
However, the risks are not confined to major market crashes. Stocks can decline even in favorable markets – consider occurrences like earnings announcements, business updates, and changes in outlook. Read AMD Dip Buyer Analyses to learn how the stock has bounced back from significant drops historically.
Is Risk Evident In The Company’s Financials Yet?
Let’s examine the fundamentals.
- Revenue Growth: 31.8% LTM and 12.9% average over the last 3 years.
- Cash Generation: Nearly 17.0% free cash flow margin and 9.4% operating margin LTM.
- Valuation: Advanced Micro Devices stock trades at a P/E ratio of 79.6.
*LTM: Last Twelve Months
If you are interested in more information, read Buy or Sell AMD Stock.
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