Walmart and jobs data disappoints; stocks face declines

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Good afternoon. This is TheStreet’s Stock Market Today for Aug. 21, 2025. The stock market is now closed. You can follow along all day with today’s biggest updates here on our daily live blog.

Investors might be of the mind that a September rate cut is an inevitability, but some Fed leaders are throwing some caution to the wind ahead of remarks at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium tomorrow morning.

While CME Group pens the odds of a September cut at 73.6%, Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack said that she “would not see a case” for a cut at the Fed’s next FOMC meeting, citing recent economic data.

Kansas City Fed president Jeffrey Schmid also left a lot up to estimation, saying that the August jobs report would be “very consequential” in whether it chooses to cut or not.

If today’s initial & continuing claims data is any indication of where things are going, things might are trending toward ‘cut’ territory. Still, worries about the labor market might take a back seat to worries about inflation, which rose aggressively for wholesalers (and might well trickle down into the CPI.)

Commentary from Fed officials has also towed the line, with a ‘wait for data’ approach. Market participants might expect as much from Fed Chair Jerome Powell when he delivers his planned remarks tomorrow.

The market is closed. The Russell 2000 (+0.04%) remained the sole index in the green today. And continuing its days-long trend, the Dow (-0.34%), Nasdaq (-0.34%), and the S&P 500 (-0.40%) all registered declines today.

Paramount Skydance  (PSKY)  (+14%) held on to be the top performing stock in the S&P 500 today. IT was joined by Packaging Corporation of America  (PKG)  (+6%) and Smurfit WestRock  (SW)  (+4.1%). Here were the others in the top 10:

Meanwhile, First Solar  (FSLR)  (-6.95%) was at the bottom of the index, pulling back from a fantastic week-long rally. It was joined by Walmart  (WMT) , which posted disappointing earnings today.

And in #3 and #4 were PG&E Corporation  (PCG)  (-4.5%) and Edison International  (EIX)  (-3.8%), two of the major power utilities of California. They’re probably down because investors get antsy every time that the temperature in California exceeds 90 degrees (any wildfire fearers in chat?)

We’re drawing closer to the end of the trading day, but stocks are looking down slim odds for a comeback today. The Russell 2000 (+0.12%) is still looking the best, followed by the Dow (-0.36%), the S&P 500 (-0.44%), and the Nasdaq (-0.44%).

Zooming out and looking at the broader market, the Russell 1000 (-0.37%) tells one story. Today, the only sector in the large cap index that’s looking uniformly green is health technology. Everybody else is looking a little grey. Doesn’t matter if it’s tech stocks or finance or utilities.

There are some real visible pockets of red though: Take a closer look at retail trade while you’re squinting; things aren’t looking great over there.

Meanwhile, things are shaping up way differently on the smaller size. The Russell 2000 is once again shaping up as a sea of green, even if there are pockets of red across the pesky finance and consumer durables sectors.

Naturally, that begs a really unfortunate observation: This increasingly looks like a market trying to get away from the consumer. Anything connected from the consumer is struggling, while recession-safe sectors like health, utilities, and even real estate have been looking up in recent trading sessions.

Too early to call it a trend, but definitely something to watch in light of recent earnings that hint at a receding of consumer confidence, especially in urban areas. More on that later.

At last glance, stocks have risen from their session lows. The Russell 2000 (+0.04%) is best-situated, followed single-file by the Nasdaq (-0.06%), Dow (-0.12%), and S&P 500 (-0.12%).

As we cross the mid-day hump, here are some of the stocks setting the pace in markets today:

The recently-combined Paramount Skydance PSKY (+14.4%) is adding to its post-merger honeymoon today, amid renewed optimism about its prospects. Last week, it was a $7.7 billion UFC deal and commitments to expand film production and retain its cable network. This week, the company has announced a deal with “Stranger Things” creators Matt and Ross Duffer. The stock is now up 36% now from its Aug. 7 merger.

The Chinese electric vehicle company XPeng  (XPEV)  (+13.8%) is running on a full battery today. We covered the company after it reported a record number of deliveries and stronger margin expansion on Tuesday. It’s once again speeding, pulling competitor NIO  (NIO)  (+11.2%) in its wake.

Solar company Sunrun  (RUN)  (-7.6%) is another name we’ve heard a lot of recently. It’s declining today after a 36.8% rise this week, during which similarly-situated solar stocks also joined the firm on its run. Strong quarterly earnings from domestic solar firms, clarification on federal tax credits, and upgrades from analysts are to thank. Ultimately, it’s not a terrible pullback considering recent strides.

The Chinese entertainment company Bilibili (-7%) is down after reporting fairly strong earnings this morning. Sales in its two largest segments, advertising (+20%) and mobile gaming (+60%) made serious leaps. Adding to the successes, the company expanded its margins and reported its first quarterly profit in years.

And how could we forget today’s trendiest stock? Walmart  (WMT)  (-4%) is eating up attention after delivering earnings this morning. Investors were treated to a modest sales beat, plus stronger guidance. However, the company reported its first profit miss in four years, scaring investors. What does it augur when wholesale giants miss? We don’t know, but it’s feeling like some sort of omen.

S&P Global’s PMI Flash data is out for August, offering one of the first pieces of positive data that traders have seen today:

• S&P Global Composite PMI: 55.4 [Prev: 55.1] [Forecast: 53]

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash: 53.3 [Prev: 49.8] [Forecast: 49.7]

• S&P Global Services PMI Flash: 55.4 [Prev: 55.7] [Forecast: 53]

In addition, existing home sales are up as well. In fact, it looks like they swung from a decline in June to a modest 2% increase in July:

Still, existing home sales are going to need something to kick them back into high gear. Any ideas what could fix this trend? (Maybe lower prices and rates could help?)

A few moments ago, we were treated to the first major economic data point of the day when Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims dropped. Both figures rose, indicating further labor market deterioration:

• Initial Jobless Claims: 235,000 [Prev: 224,000] [Consensus: 225,000]

• Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.972 million [Prev: 1.942 million]

The Philadelphia Fed also released a slew of data points, including the heavily-watched Manufacturing Index, which declined significantly month-over-month. Here’s the print for those various data points:

• Manufacturing Index -0.3 [Prev: 15.9] [Consensus: 7]

• Future CAPEX Index: 38.4 [Prev: 17.1]

• Employment: 5.9 [Prev: 10.3]

• New Orders: -1.9 [Prev: 18.4]

• Prices Paid: 66.8 [Prev: 58.8]

Taken together, these figures were okay, but held some disappointing realities about rising prices. The largest consolation is that companies polled by the Philly Fed are still expecting growth, with the future new orders index and shipments index rising to their highest points since May.

In response to the reports, stocks are now plummeting in futures trading. The Russell 2000 (-0.61%), the Dow (-0.42%), and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 (-0.35% each) are all declining in futures.

Boeing  (BA)  (+1.9% in premarket) is reportedly in talks to sell up to 500 aircraft to China, per Bloomberg. However, the deal is still in the works. A similar deal has been worked out in recent weeks between China and Airbus. More details will be added as they emerge.

There are only 39 earnings reports today, per Nasdaq. Still, there are some heavyweights today. Walmart  (WMT)  (-2%) already reported this morning. It made some waves as the company missed its profit expectations for the first time in three years. Still, sales beat and guidance was raised.

Later today, we’ll also be getting earnings from software players like Zoom  (ZM) , Intuit  (INTU) , and Workday  (WDAY)  in after hours. Maybe that will make up for what we’ve seen this morning.

Here are the top ten reports coming down the line today:

Today, the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium will kick off in Wyoming. It’ll also be a busy day for economic data. Here’s what investors will be keeping an eye on today, with forecasted figures provided by TradingEconomics.

(All times are in ET; all data is for August unless otherwise indicated.)

• Initial Jobless Claims (Wk of Aug. 16) [Prev: 224,000]

• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index [Prev: 15.9] [Forecast: 9]

• Continuing Jobless Claims (Wk of Aug. 9) [Prev: 1.953 million]

• S&P Global Composite PMI [Prev: 55.1] [Forecast: 53]

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash [Prev: 49.8] [Forecast: 49.7]

• S&P Global Services PMI Flash [Prev: 55.7] [Forecast: 53]

• Philadelphia Fed CAPEX, Employment, New Orders, and Prices Paid at 8:30 a.m. 

• EIA Natural Gas Stocks change at 10:30 a.m.

• 4- and 8- week bill auction at 11:30 a.m. 

• 15- and 30-year mortgage rate at 12:00 p.m.

• 30-year TIPS auction at 1:00 p.m.

• Fed Balance Sheet out at 4:30 p.m.

This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Aug 21, 2025, where it first appeared in the Investing News, Analysis, and Tips section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.