What will stocks do in the second half of 2024? Here’s what to expect, according to history
Global stocks ended the first half of 2024 up by more than 12%, and investors stand to make good money over the next six months if history repeats itself. CNBC Pro’s analysis of the past 50 years of MSCI World index price data shows that when the index rose by more than 12% in the first six months of the year, it continued to rise over the second half 83% of the time. Since the late 1980s, though, after a first-half rise of over 12%, stocks rose every single time in the second half of the year. The analysis also reveals that since 1970, the global stock market index had an average 21.25% price return for the whole year when the index was up more than 12% halfway through the year. The U.S.-only S & P 500 index has behaved in a very similar way to the MSCI World Index since 1989. If stocks were up over 12% by the last day of June, they were up 100% of the time by the end of the year, by an average of 10%. The downside was relatively shallow, too, on the occasions when the indexes lost steam after rallying in the first half. For instance, when stocks fell in 1975, 1983, and 1986, investors lost between 1.8% and 5.2%. The stock market performance in the second half of 1987 — when Black Monday occurred — was the only exception where investors lost money by double digits: 20% for the MSCI World index and 18.7% for the S & P 500. The stock market had risen by more than 25% in the first half of that year. .SPX 1Y line
