archiveECB

Yesterday ECB President Christine Lagarde gave a speech in Berlin. It was about how the euro could possibly replace the dollar as the dominant global currency in the future. The speech is worth reading, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. Euro may struggle to become the next reserve currency"Lagarde is right, in my opinion, when she says: 'A currency's exposure to trade is especially important, as it provides the initial pathway to wider international use.' Reserves are held so that, in the worst case scenario of...

EUR/USD slides below 1.1100 as the US Dollar rallies after the US and China agreed to lower tariffs by 115% for 90 days.The US-China temporary trade truce is expected to tame elevated consumer inflation expectations.ECB Schnabel sees no need to lower interest rates further.EUR/USD plunges below 1.1100 during European trading hours at the start of the week. The major currency pair faces an intense selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) rallies after the United States (US) and China, in a joint statement, announced a higher-than-expected reduction in tariffs for...

Havens favoured as trade risks simmer This week's report dives into what looks set to influence the fair value of the major currencies – think the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD), Japanese Yen (JPY), Swiss Franc (CHF), Euro (EUR), British Pound (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), and US Dollar (USD) – over the coming seven days. We're setting this against the backdrop of the wider seven-week picture and, of course, how they've performed recently. We'll be looking at the usual suspects: what markets expect from central bank policy, the...

EUR/USD moves higher to near 1.0820 ahead of US President Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs. Anxiety over Trump's tariffs has dampened the confidence of US businesses and households. Soft Eurozone HICP data paves the way for more ECB interest rate cuts. EUR/USD rises to near 1.0820 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The major currency pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) declines before the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by United States (US) President Trump at 20:00 GMT. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against six major currencies, falls to near...

EUR/USD finds support below 1.0800 as the US Dollar struggles to extend upside amid easing fears of impending tariffs by the US on April 2. Preliminary US S&P Global Services PMI gained significantly in March. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates again in April. EUR/USD finds cushion around 1.0780 and rises to near 1.0825 during North American trading hours on Tuesday. The major currency pair attracts bids as the US Dollar (USD) drops on the narrower-than-feared tariff agenda of United States (US) President Donald Trump. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value...