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The U.S. dollar experienced a sharp fall against the yen and other major currencies on Thursday, following intervention by Japanese authorities. The move was aimed at strengthening the yen amid ongoing geopolitical tensions that have impacted global markets. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama hinted at the need for decisive market actions earlier in the day.Japan's intervention followed signals from the Finance Ministry about measures to support the weakening yen, which had reached its lowest level against the dollar since July 2024. The dollar's drop, the largest since December 2024, came as...

Yesterday ECB President Christine Lagarde gave a speech in Berlin. It was about how the euro could possibly replace the dollar as the dominant global currency in the future. The speech is worth reading, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. Euro may struggle to become the next reserve currency"Lagarde is right, in my opinion, when she says: 'A currency's exposure to trade is especially important, as it provides the initial pathway to wider international use.' Reserves are held so that, in the worst case scenario of...

EUR/USD slides below 1.1100 as the US Dollar rallies after the US and China agreed to lower tariffs by 115% for 90 days.The US-China temporary trade truce is expected to tame elevated consumer inflation expectations.ECB Schnabel sees no need to lower interest rates further.EUR/USD plunges below 1.1100 during European trading hours at the start of the week. The major currency pair faces an intense selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) rallies after the United States (US) and China, in a joint statement, announced a higher-than-expected reduction in tariffs for...

Havens favoured as trade risks simmer This week's report dives into what looks set to influence the fair value of the major currencies – think the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD), Japanese Yen (JPY), Swiss Franc (CHF), Euro (EUR), British Pound (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), and US Dollar (USD) – over the coming seven days. We're setting this against the backdrop of the wider seven-week picture and, of course, how they've performed recently. We'll be looking at the usual suspects: what markets expect from central bank policy, the...