archiveInternational Trade and World Market

The governor of China’s central bank outlined a plan on Wednesday for a global financial system that relies on several major currencies, not just the dollar, as Beijing steps up its campaign to weaken the U.S. dollar’s primacy.Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People’s Bank of China, did not mention the dollar by name but gave an extended critique of the potential dangers of international reliance on a single country’s currency.In a coded reference to the United States, Mr. Pan cited the dangers posed by fiscal and regulatory problems in...

The U.S. dollar has been a symbol of American power for decades. Of the $7.5 trillion in global currency transactions that take place each day, some 90 percent feature the dollar. The majority of central banks see it as the core of their reserves. Consumers run to it in times of stress. Businesses prefer it for trade invoicing, whether they are based in Milwaukee or Malaysia.The dollar may not lose its globally dominant role anytime soon. After all, there isn’t an obvious alternative waiting in the wings. But it is...

In fact, even without the damage inflicted recently by Mr. Trump’s policies, it’s possible that the dollar would be declining anyway, if only because it had reached historically elevated levels. Consider this performance:In 2024, the dollar rose more than 7 percent, measured by the Dollar Index, and 9 percent, using the Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index.Taking inflation into account by using the Fed’s Real Broad Trade-Weighted Index, the dollar rose almost 23 percent over the 20 years through March.Late last year, using this broad, inflation-adjusted index, the dollar was stronger...

The U.S. dollar has fallen about 9 percent in the past three months, according to an index that tracks its performance against a basket of major trading partners. Not since the 1970s has the currency performed so badly in a president’s first 100 days.The drop isn’t surprising. The U.S. economic outlook is far cloudier than it was on Inauguration Day, as President Trump’s tariffs set the stage for slower growth and higher inflation. U.S. assets look far less attractive now.But could there be something more existential afoot? Questions are swirling...

President Trump’s shake-up of the global trade system has sent tremors through the long-held view that the United States is the source of the world’s safest financial assets. That’s created an opportunity for Europe.The market tumult in which investors simultaneously sold off the U.S. dollar, American stocks and U.S. Treasury bonds eased last week as Mr. Trump backed off his threats to fire the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome H. Powell, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to reassure foreign officials that trade deals would be struck.But many European officials attending...

On the sidelines of the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to convey an important message about the United States dollar.Speaking to a crowd of global policymakers, regulators and investors, Mr. Bessent sought to allay fears that had ballooned in recent weeks about the dollar’s global standing and the country’s role as the safest haven during times of stress. He reiterated that the administration would continue to have a “strong-dollar policy” and affirmed that it would remain the currency...

The bedrock of the financial system trembled on Friday, with government bond yields rising sharply as the chaotic rollout of tariffs shook investors’ faith in the pivotal role played by the United States in the financial system.U.S. government bonds, known as Treasuries because they are issued by the U.S. Treasury, are backed by the full faith of the American government, and the market for Treasuries has long been deemed one of the safest and most stable in the world.But the Treasury market’s erratic behavior all week has raised fears that...

This time, maybe the stock market is the economy.Financial markets around the world have plummeted in the days since President Trump announced sweeping tariffs, setting off a global trade war. The S&P 500 declined more than 10 percent in two days last week, and it swung wildly on Monday amid news of further tariffs and rumors of delays. Stock indexes in Asia and Europe have fallen sharply as well.Experts often caution that the stock market can be a misleading measure of the broader economy. Share prices can move for a...

Sizing up what President Trump’s new tariffs mean for India was a puzzle from the start for even the country’s top trade economists. Its politicians, too, were stunned.Starting next week, nearly all Indian goods arriving in the United States will be taxed an extra 27 percent.The figure was bafflingly high, in part because the government’s ministers had been flocking to Washington since Mr. Trump won re-election. From the Rose Garden, Mr. Trump addressed India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, in absentia while delivering the disappointing news, calling him “a great friend...

The mood has darkened in the U.S. stock market, and no wonder. Pessimism about the Trump tariffs has set off painful declines.But the picture has been less dire for people with investments outside the U.S. stock market. Holding plenty of bonds and including stakes in international stock markets were keys to stability and, maybe, even modestly positive returns in the first three months of the year. While there is no guarantee that this approach will work as well in the future, it has held its own over many years and...